2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 31, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 1:05AM ET.
Green Bay at Chicago
Sunday 12/31 08:15 PM Eastern
3 units on Chicago -3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73) RESULT: LOSS
Chicago at home laying just 3 points? Of course it is because they have home field locked up and Green Bay may have something to play for here. Green Bay is the play here if you assume they are fighting for the playoffs and Chicago is going to lay down in a big way. But can we count on both of those happening? We think it's not so likely. If the Giants win on Saturday, Green Bay is out of the playoffs. Even if the G-Men lose, does Green Bay have what it takes to go into Soldier Field and keep it close? If Chicago was to rest all starters, maybe. Maybe not. But, we can try to predict a bit what Chicago will do. On ChicagoBears.com, Lovie Smith wrote some things that lead us to believe they will be taking this game seriously. He said, "The most important thing for our team is that we play our best football of the season right now. You wonder when you should peak and ideally that happens in your last game heading into the playoffs." He goes on to say "We’re playing the Packers and we want to beat them because they’re our No. 1 rival, no more than that. But this is also a last opportunity before the playoffs for us to fine-tune some things and just play our best." If Chicago's defense comes to play, Green Bay is in trouble. They are an offense susceptible to errors. Brett Favre can kill you if he starts hucking the ball in the air and against a pressure defense like Chicago's, that's what may happen. Smith said, "What concerns me the most at this time is how we’re playing defense, specifically our pass defense." We think based on all of these comments that Chicago will want to put forth a good showing. That they will have starters play defense to work through the troubles in recent games. We think they want to beat the Packers to go into the playoffs on an upnote. If they do in fact come into this game with this attitude, it could be a very long day for Favre and the Pack. If this were a normal game, Chicago would be laying close to double-digits. Hard to pass up on a small number like this.