2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 03, 2005
This pick was released to clients on July 12, 2012 at 8:03PM ET.
Green Bay at Carolina
Monday 10/03 09:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Green Bay +7.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: WIN
Have we not all learned? Last week everyone thought Tampa Bay would crush the Packers. They did not. This week, the public was all over some large favorites of over a touchdown who all barely won and did not cover (Cincinnati, Tampa Bay). This is yet another nice trap game for Carolina. The Pack are 0-3 while Carolina is still considered an elite team by many despite their 1-2 record. This spread is too large considering that Carolina is losing and they are having turnover problems. Jake Delhomme alone has accounted for four INTs and two fumbles. His interception late last week let Miami win the game. The Panthers are performing like a middle-of-the-road team as are the Packers. The Packers really need a win. Mike Sherman is 10-2 ATS as coach of the Packers after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their past 3 games. Carolina does not perform well in the favorite role. They are 6-15 as a favorite over the past three seasons including 3-11 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Week four underdogs vs. teams with 2+ losses cover the spread about 75% of the time in the NFL. This game looks alot like the Detroit/Tampa Bay and Houston/Cincinnati games this weekend. Both look like they should be huge blowouts by the favorite. And, like those two, I expect a surprise in which the underdog keeps it close. Two stars on the Packers plus the points.