2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 12, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:25AM ET.

12

Denver at Las Vegas

Sunday 11/12 04:05 PM Eastern

2 units on Las Vegas +9.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: WIN

This one will take some heart to play. Oakland? Yes. While your gut tells you "no way," history tells us to back the down-and-out Raiders. This is a perfect contrarian spot. Denver is off a big win in Pittsburgh. They have the #1 scoring defense and their offense has finally gotten on track (62 points the past two weeks). With the offense clicking, the public has no fear in backing Denver as a nearly double-digit road favorite. And, with Oakland looking horrible on Monday night, a game most everyone watched, they have no problem fading them as a big home dog. But, let's look beneath the covers. We're still not sold on Denver's defense being #1. They are ranked just 11th in yards allowed per game and 13th in yards per play. They are keeping teams out of the endzone but they are letting teams move the ball. Eventually, one of these teams is going to score more than you think. Heck, their "great" defense was exposed the past two weeks, allowing 54 points. Oakland will rebound after the embarrasing showing on Monday night. We saw it three weeks ago when they faced Arizona as a home underdog. They were coming off a terrible showing in Denver in which they got just 3 points in a nationally televised game. They went on to beat Arizona outright at home in that one. Denver is in a big letdown spot. They are off of two huge games against Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. They have monster game on tap against co-division leader San Diego. The Denver players watched the Monday night game. We doubt they are taking Oakland very seriously. Oakland however will be up for this home division matchup. We know it feels all wrong - but we like Oakland to sneak away with the ATS win in this one. When a team seems so down and out that you could never back them in a million years, it's time to back them. This is why the public loses money and we'll go the opposite direction. Raiders here.

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