Denver at Kansas City

I know, I know. I can feel the cringe with this pick. But hear me out. Kansas City had to rally to beat Minnesota 27-20 last Sunday, surviving another scare as they did against the New York Jets the previous week. Now the Chiefs are laying double digits, and can't be too "up" for this game against one of the worst teams in the league. Denver has covered its past four games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Broncos are 3-0 ATS the past three meetings between theser clubs and came close to defeating the Chiefs outright twice last season. Denver had one final chance against the Jets on Sunday, but fumbled in the final minute and cornerback Bryce Hall returned it 39 yards for a touchdown, crowning 31-21 win. Russell Wilson threw for 196 yards and two TDs as he continues to adjust to the new coaching staff. Kansas City is 3-9-1 ATS its past 13 against teams with losing records, 2-7 ATS overall following an ATS win, and 6-13-1 ATS after a straight-up win. Also, the Chiefs are 1-6 ATS versus AFC West opponents and 4-12 ATS vs. conference foes. Clearly the Chiefs are the way better team, but this is too many points and we have the emotional edge with a Denver team that desperately wants to show up, vs. a Chiefs team that may be taking their opponent a bit lightly. Take the points with the Broncos - Max Play.