2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 17, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:56AM ET.


Denver at Arizona

Sunday 12/17 04:05 PM Eastern

5 units on Arizona +3 (-110) (risk 5 to return 9.55)  RESULT: LOSS

Here we have two teams headed in vastly different directions. One is improving, at home, and getting points. The other is heading south, is on the road, and laying points. This looks to us to be a reputation line vs. based on what's happening on the field. How else do you explain a team that has gone from 7-2 to 7-6, and coming off a 28 point blowout loss, now laying a field goal on the road with the public favoring the road team? Denver looked like it had a defense to rival that of Chicago earlier in the season, holding opponents to just 7.3 ppg over their first six games. But those of you who have been with us know we never believed it was that superb. How far has Denver fallen? They gave up more points to San Diego last week than all points combined given up in those first six weeks. Their fall from grace wasn't limited to one week though, as Denver has now dropped four in a row and is on a free-fall. That team that gave up 7 ppg has now given up 27 ppg over the last seven. Arizona has been quite the opposite. They were considered a contender at season's onset but soon became a pretender. But like Tennessee, they have emerged behind an installed rookie QB that is finally making strides, and everything else seems to improve around it. Take a look at Edgerrin James. Considered a bust having rushed for just 516 yards on 185 carries in the first half of the season (2.8 ypc), is now clicking along with Leinart. He has topped 100 yards in each of the last two games and has had more yards per carry in each of his past five games than he did in any game in the first half. He is 93 carries for 409 yards in the last five, or about 4.4 ypc. It is the reason Arizona has suddenly won three of four. It's also why their scoring total for each of the last three games is individually higher than any game of their first 10. We will gladly take points on a surging December home team, vs. one in which all the wheels have come off.



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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