2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 02, 2005
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Dallas at Las Vegas
Sunday 10/02 04:15 PM Eastern
4 units on Dallas +3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: LOSS
As I always say, the public is wrong. This is why most bettors lose and sportsbooks laugh to the bank. Last week we knew the public was all over Philadelphia vs. Oakland. They were wrong. They also loved Dallas to beat the lowly 49ers who were trounced 49-3 the week prior. They were wrong. This week, after watching Oakland nearly beat Philadelphia, and Dallas nearly lose to San Francisco, they've changed their tune. Now, "Oakland is better than we thought and Dallas is just lucky!" Well, not so fast. Dallas showed a lot of moxie last week, coming back to beat San Francisco. It was a tough situation for them following their blown win against Washington. I don't view their near loss to San Francisco last week as a negative. I view their win, in that situation, as a positive. The could have easily folded tent and lost but they didn't. Dallas is the much better team here folks and they are getting points. Their offense is clicking with Julius Jones and great play from Drew Bledsoe. They've scored 75 points in three games. Oakland's offense has potential and has shown some signs of brilliance but it isn't there yet. Heck, if you can't run for more than 22 yards on 21 carries vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, you don't have much of an offense. LaMont Jordan is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. Dallas has the 5th ranked offense. Oakland's is 8th. Dallas' defense is ranked 23rd. Oakland's is 29th. Dallas should be 3-0 and Oakland is 0-3. Why is Oakland favored? Got me! Over the past three seasons, Oakland is 0-8 during October and 1-9 in games with a small spread. Week four favorites with fewer than two wins are horrible against the spread, losing about 3 out of every 4 times. Shop around for lines and get 3.5 on this game and take the Cowboys here for four stars.