2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 04, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:39AM ET.

04

Carolina at Philadelphia

Monday 12/04 08:30 PM Eastern

3 units on Philadelphia +3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)  RESULT: WIN

This game sets up nicely for bettors. Philadelphia, so reliant on their quarterback, losses Donovan McNabb two weeks ago. In that game, they played bad and lost outright as a double-digit favorite. They give up 31 points. So people watch intently what will happen the next week without their most important player. They get hammered 45-21. That cemented in the public's mind that Philadelphia is done. That they can't win without McNabb. Carolina, as we have stated here before, is an average inconsistent team. They show up some weeks and perform good. Other weeks they lay an egg. Last week they lost to the Redskins dropping them to 5-6 on the season. Through ten games, they have given up more points than they have scored. Why the public continues to view them as a top team we do not know. Why they are laying a full field goal on the road on Monday Night we do not know. The fact is, this is a monster game for the Eagles. At 5-6, they must win this game to have any shot at playing in January. They cannot afford to drop to 5-7. They will show up and be very emotional in front of the home crowd on Monday Night and we expect a superb performance from them. The other players on this roster want to prove to the NFL and the country that they are not just about one guy. We believe they are going to come in with a chip on their shoulder after everyone is counting them out. Home underdog on Monday Night? 75% of the public betting on Carolina? We'll show them! Yes, we know McNabb is an integral part of this offense. But Jeff Garcia isn't that bad. He's a vet who completed 83% of his passes last week. He's now had another full week of practice with the starters. He'll get the ball in Westbrook's hands as much as possible and Westbrook is good enough to make something happen. The bigger concern for Philly is their run defense. It's ranked 28th in the league and surrendered 237 yards last game. Consider however that Carolina's run offense on the road has been dismal this season. They are averaging just 85 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. Is Philadelphia without McNabb a better team than Carolina? No. But, we are getting line value here on a very motivated home dog on Monday night. Accordingly, we'll back that dog. The line at most sportsbooks at this time is Philly +3 with negative juice (i.e. +105 instead of -110). Likely you can get it at +3.5 by game time.

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Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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