2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 23, 2005
This pick was released to clients on July 12, 2012 at 8:15PM ET.
Buffalo at Las Vegas
Sunday 10/23 04:15 PM Eastern
1 unit on Buffalo +3 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: LOSS
Oakland may be without the services of Randy Moss here. If Moss plays, this spread is only a bit off. If he doesn't, Buffalo should be favored by a field goal. Buffalo handled the Jets last week as predicted here. It was an easy win for them. With Kelly Holcomb at the helm to compliment the emerging Willis McGahee, this Buffalo team is damn good! At the beginning of the season, I predicted they'd go OVER the 8 WIN TOTAL placed on them and they are already half-way there. With this lineup, they should sail past that number. They are ranked 6th in the league in rushing and Holcomb is reviving the passing game. They own the #9 overall defense and are ranked #1 in defending the pass. A great matchup for their defense here as their strength can combat Oakland's strength. They'll face a bad Oakland team that continues to be way overrated. So they have Randy Moss - so what? Their defense is atrocious (ranked 28th in the league) and their running game is horrible (ranked 31st). Why is this 1-4 team laying points? My supercomputer simulation in this one agrees with my power ratings and gut feel - that Buffalo is going to win. Buffalo is repeating what they did last year when they started slow but finished strong. They are now 12-3 ATS this season and last after the first month of the season. Meanwhile, Oakland is 1-9 ATS in weeks 5-9 over the past three seasons. Take the Bills plus the points for one star.