2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 29, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 8:54PM ET.
Baltimore at New Orleans
Sunday 10/29 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Baltimore +2 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73) RESULT: WIN
The Ravens started the season going 4-0. Things looked great as Steve McNair was doing enough to win and the Ravens' defense allowed just 33 total points over those four games. Then they lose Monday night in Denver in week 5 and follow that with a loss at home to Carolina in week 6. Suddenly no one believes in the Ravens anymore. Well, I am not ready to give up on them. I have reason to believe they will improve on offense and they still have one of the best defenses in the NFL (3rd ranked). Sure, they lost to Denver and Carolina. But, those two teams are playing VERY well right now. Baltimore has held five of six opponents to 14 points or less this year. This defense is awesome. With the switch of play calling abilities to head coach Brian Billick, and an extra week to prepare, I look for the Ravens to improve offensively this week. And don't forget that they have already scored 21+ points three times this year. They've struggled offensively in their three other games but two of those were against great defenses: Denver and San Diego. San Diego has the second ranked defense in yards per game and Denver is tops in points allowed per game. So it's not a big surprise that Baltimore didn't have much offensive success against those two. On the flipside, the public is now officially enamored with the Saints. It all started on Monday night in week three when they anhilated the favored Atlanta Falcons. Since then, they kept it close against Carolina and beat Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. And everyone loves Reggie Bush. The Saints are 5-1 SU and ATS and look to be on top of the world. But they are now overvalued in my opinion. This should be closer to a pick'em game. Baltimore's defense is absolutely stifling so expect this Saints offense, so good to date, to struggle for the first time. They have faced some of the league's worst defenses so far in Cleveland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay. They haven't seen anything like this yet and it will be a rude awakening for an offense that is likley believing their own hype to some extent. Baltimore is in a great spot here. They are in desparate need of a win after two straight losses including an upset loss before the bye. The Ravens are 17-4 ATS over the past decade off an upset loss and 21-8 ATS off a home loss! Baltimore wins this game. Take them with the points to boot.