2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 01, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 7:31PM ET.
Baltimore at Cleveland
Sunday 01/01 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Cleveland +3 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: win
2 units on Game Total UNDER 37 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: win
Both of these teams are out of the playoffs so we really don't have anything too strange about this game. Yet, somehow we get a division home underdog with a visitor that is 0-7 this season (0-10 dating back to last season) on the road. Kyle Boller has certainly improved over the past couple of weeks. But, who has he faced? Green Bay and Minnesota. Two poor defenses. Why is everyone so ready to give this guy a "pass" just because he beat two horrible defenses? His numbers on the year are still atrocious. On the road, Baltimore has lost by an average score of 13-25. And, those games included some pretty bad opponents (Tennessee, Detroit). Cleveland is off a terribly embarassing loss last week to the Steelers. They DO NOT want to go into the offseason on that note. They will be working very hard this week and will leave it all on the field on Sunday in an effort to erase the memory of last week. Teams scoring <14 points per game coming off a game in which they scored less than 10 are a solid 13-6 ATS this year (68%). And, underdogs off a terrible rushing performance vs. an opponent that had a great defensive rushing performance last week are 1-0 this season and 75% lifetime. Don't get me wrong. Charlie Frye and company won't be lighting it up against this Baltimore defense. This will be a low scoring game. The first matchup this season ended in a 16-3 score. Baltimore is 9-2 UNDER this season in conference games and 9-2 UNDER in expected close games (+3 to -3) over the past two seasons. Cleveland is 11-4 UNDER in all games this season including a perfect 7-0 vs. losing teams. Games with a total between 35.5 and 42 involving two bad teams with one having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games have gone UNDER 67% of the time since 1983 (77-38). This will be a low scoring hard fought game which will come down to the end. I'll take the field goal in a game like that. Two stars on the Browns and two stars on the UNDER.