2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 06, 2005
This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 7:05PM ET.
Atlanta at Miami
Sunday 11/06 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Miami +2.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: LOSS
We've banked a lot on taking the Dolphins selectively this season, including last week. Here's another opportunity. The theme this week, as you know, is "false" wins and losses. Atlanta had a false win against the Jets on Monday night prior to their bye. The nation saw them win by a lopsided score of 27-14. But, what happened in that game? Vinny and the Jets coughed up the ball four times. Michael Vick was only 11 of 26 for 116 yards. It was a sloppy performance for Atlanta and yet they won "easily" if you judge by the final score. Teams that play sloppily but win anyway tend not to work as much as they should on what ails them. In the same way they did last year, Atlanta is finding ways to win games without that solid of a team - statistically. Yes, they can run the ball with the best of them. But, outside of that, they are just average. My power ratings peg Miami as the better team here and they are getting nearly a field goal at home. Atlanta has not impressed me in several games this year including a 3 point win over lowly New Orleans at home two weeks ago and a home loss to New England. Outside of last week's misleading final score, they have only blown out one opponent this year - the Minnesota Vikings (who hasn't?). Miami has some offense this year and their running game has gotten on-track the past couple of games as Ronnie Brown has exceeded 100 yards in both. Atlanta gets exposed here as they lose outright. Take Miami plus the 2.5 points for two stars.