Legalized sports betting continues to grow with increasing fan interest (and revenues). The industry keeps making it easier to bet, and once you shift from fan to bettor, you realize how many wagering options are available from every game.
NBA fans have shifted en masse, with nearly 43% of American sports bettors participating in pro hoops over the past year, second only to the NFL (75%).
The NBA betting options range from sides, totals, parlays, props, first-half bets, and futures. There are different returns, too. A standard bet is to wager $110 to win $100, but it's also possible to lay $20 to win $100 with a moneyline at +500. But the house isn't in business to give away money, so if you want to win, there are a few things to take into consideration.
Understanding the NBA Lines
A four-point NBA favorite will be listed as -4 (-110), while the team they're playing, the underdog, will be listed at +4 (-110). The dog is getting four points, so if they win the game or lose by less than four points, that constitutes a winning bet. The "minus 110" is called the juice, or the bookmaker's take. Whether backing the favorite or the dog, a player would risk $110 to win $100 under these circumstances. Some betting lines will be -115 or -120, which means the book takes an even higher percentage.
Bettors wishing to avoid the point spread and wager on a team to win the game outright, such as in baseball or hockey, can do so with a NBA moneyline wager. The moneyline for a favorite might be listed as -180, meaning you'd wager $180 on the favorite to collect $100 if they win the game. Betting the underdog in a moneyline bet with lucrative odds such as +160 creates an opportunity to gain a positive return on your stake, but calling these winners is more challenging than betting favorites. For NBA betting, point spreads are much more common amongst bettors than moneylines.
NBA Matchup Handicapping
Before placing a wager, it’s good practice to do some analysis of the matchup. Most casual bettors don't put much thought or effort into it. They back the favorite because they have the better record, it's their favorite team, or because of a superstar player. But to win money and cover the spread consistently, strategy is needed more than emotion when it comes to making your NBA picks.
As a pro handicapper, I examine matchups by breaking down both sides before I bet on NBA games. This looks like gauging how the front and backcourts fare based on strengths, weaknesses, health, and past performances. Some NBA teams prefer to run at a breakneck pace, scoring and allowing well into the triple digits. Other teams can play uptempo while still playing terrific defense. Some teams own an opponent, while individual players have some of their best games against the same opponent because of favorable matchups. Understanding these factors will help you prepare and predict what is likely to unfold.
Pro Tip: Save your emotion for when you’re watching the game. Use strategy when making your bets.
NBA Stats, Angles, & Trends
Statistics are the bedrock of handicapping analysis. Stats reveal a team's good, bad, or ugly aspects. The numbers don’t lie when it comes to defense, three-point shooting, turnovers, and free-throw shooting. Understanding layers of stats helps to form an informed opinion of which way the game will go and what the final score might be.
Angles and NBA trends can also be helpful. For instance, over the last 20 games, an NBA team is 10-0 at home but 4-6 on the road. Naturally, the venue for the next game will be vital as they play great basketball in front of their home fans, but far less so in front of a hostile crowd. An NBA squad may be 13-0 straight-up in its last 13 as a double-digit favorite but 4-9 against the spread. That trend shows that they win but don't cover very often. Betting with trends an angles in mind is a great start, but when I’m making picks I take it even further by trying to identify reasons behind the trends. Maybe the double-digit favorite focuses more on defense because they're not a great shooting or scoring team. They're content to win games 107-100 on average, which explains why they're not great as a huge favorite.
Pro tip: Use trends to your advantage but don’t let them replace your critical thinking.
Shop 'til You Drop
Line shopping is a great practice often ignored by casual bettors. NBA line shopping means that after identifying who is likely to cover the point spread, a bettor takes the time to search for the best line available. If the favorite is -7, -6.5, and -7.5 at three different sports books, the smartest players will try to get -6.5. The one or half-point difference may not seem like much, but it is over the long haul if you want to earn a profit betting on the NBA. Over a few weeks of betting, that can mean the difference between going 19-18-4 or 23-15-2. Those extra covers will show up in one's bankroll if you are con
Pro Tip: Don’t forget to line shop and find the best NBA odds.
NBA Betting Totals
Most money is wagered on sides, but totals are too often overlooked and shouldn't be. NBA totals pay the same and can offer softer numbers and better wagering value when basketball betting. This is the total points scored by both teams in an NBA game. It's listed next to the side, such as "228 (Over -110)" or "228 (Under -110)". Handicappers identify the betting value by calculating a likely final score and comparing it to the total. For instance, a pair of NBA teams are meeting, and they're both in the top 10 defensively in field goal shooting allowed. That's a sign the coach preaches defense in practice and demands it during games. In addition, one of the teams is subpar offensively in 3-point shooting and at the free-throw line. There is enough evidence in the data to anticipate more of a defensive game with a final score around 110-106. If the total is 217, you and the oddsmakers are thinking along the same line. If the total comes in at 226 and is bet down to 225, you've identified the right way to wager, along with other serious bettors who have already grabbed the UNDER. Percentage-wise, you're on the right track to finding good wagering value.
Live NBA Betting Tips
Live, or in-game, betting is not for everyone. It helps to have experience at watching and wagering because the NBA pace is hectic and the NBA odds are constantly changing. An analogy would be watching the stock market floor, with prices shifting every second and people clawing over one another trying to sell or buy at the best price.
In NBA live betting, it's you against the changing odds ticker. Here, patterns and shooting percentages come into play. Basketball has an ebb-and-flow, with one team going on a 14-4 run, followed by the opponent going on a 20-10 surge. By watching the action and monitoring shooting percentages, it's possible to get a feel when a hot or cold spell is coming. A team goes on a hot shooting roll, the opposing coach calls a timeout, and both coaches make substitutions. The hot team may have two new players who aren't adept at scoring or who are in there to play defense. There's a decent chance that the hot-shooting run is over. Or, if a good team has a terrible stretch shooting 25%, it's unlikely it will continue the rest of the game. You want to try and time it to understand when they will go on their own heater.
Pro Tip: Use your eyes and head when attempting in-game betting. Watch players in transition, look for when a team is out of sync, or injuries are visible. All of that helps predict which way the ebb and flow will go and when to wager in a live game.
NBA Teaser Trap: Avoid at all Costs
Teasers are parlays where the bettor gets a few extra points on two teams in different games. In football, a teaser is around six points. If the Browns are a +4 underdog and the Steelers are playing someone else as a 7-point favorite, you can tease the Browns to +10 and the Steelers to minus-one. The catch is, in a NBA parlays, both teams have to cover the adjusted teaser line or the ticket is a loser. In football, there are times when teasers can be a decent bet. In the NBA, teasers are only around four points. However, the four extra points aren't nearly enough to provide wagering value because the NBA games have so much higher scoring than football.
Pro Tip: As a general rule, you're better off avoiding NBA teasers.
NBA Prop Bets
NBA player prop betting used to be reserved for the postseason but is now offered daily. You can wager on the OVER/UNDER for specific players regarding points, rebounds, or assists. If a player averages 23 points per game, he will have around that as a prop OVER/UNDER. But who is he up against that night: a great defensive team or a bad one? Will he be matched up against a team with a quick, gangly player who has the reputation as a defensive stopper or was on the All-NBA defensive squad last season? If so, reaching his 23 points-per-game scoring average might not be easy. A big man who averages seven rebounds per game might have a massive night on the boards if he's playing a team that lacks height or inside muscle. The law of averages can be utilized, too. If a great scorer is coming off a terrible shooting game, perhaps he's poised to bounce back against a team with lax defense or one he regularly has big games against.
Pro Tip: Remember to go beyond averages and look closely at the current matchup and how the OVER/UNDER may be set incorrectly based on matchups and recent performance.
The Choice is Yours
No matter what bet you make, winning on the NBA requires putting some work in. Successful bettors must understand the lines, shop for the best prices, and handicap matchups while utilizing NBA stats, angles, and betting trends when trying to beat the NBA betting odds. You don't want to overlook opportunities with props and live betting, but I focus most of my attention on flat-betting sides and totals. The oddsmakers are very good at their jobs - but they're not perfect, which opens the door for multiple winning wagering strategies each day. Use these tips to increase your win percentage, or check out my premium picks if you want my advice on the best plays this NBA season.
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