Betting point spreads are only a part of wagering on NBA games. It's not even 50% of the options available. Totals, or Over/Under picks, are another way to search for value and wager. It's the same as with football totals with the oddsmakers putting up a number on the combined points scored by both teams (around 200). When assessing whether to wager on a game, one should start looking at both the side and total. Part of a handicapper's routine is to project what the final score of the game might be, then look at the actual oddsmaker lines. If the side is similar to the projected final, it's a pass. But if the total is off by 8-10 points, it's worth a closer look and perhaps a play.
Why Use Free NBA Over/Under Picks
With NBA games going off each night, professional handicappers have to accumulate as much data as possible every single day. For totals, examine such basics as situations, Over/Under trends, coaching styles, defensive rankings, injuries, and the differences between each team's home/road offensive stats. Getting the opinions of other professionals such as Free NBA Over/Under Picks adds to the amount of information you can examine each day. And in the nonstop world of wagering, information is gold.
Betting Value in Free NBA Over/Under Picks
One way to approach handicapping Over/Under numbers is when two outstanding defensive teams clash. Many teams rank in the Top 5 in field goal shooting allowed, points surrendered, and three-point defense. That defensive intensity begins with the head coach, who has to teach players in practice proper defensive mechanics and then demand it during games. If a coach that has a strong track record of getting teams to play great defense sees a stretch of five minutes where the team is struggling defensively, he'll probably call a time-out. He'll either chew them out for lax defense or bring in some fresh legs demanding a strong defensive effort. Since the average bettor prefers high-scoring games and wagers on the Over, the total may move up a few points, such as from 198 to 201. If two outstanding defensive teams are playing each other, that line movement represents wagering value.
Wunderdog Free NBA Over/Under Picks
I examine both sides and totals on each game on the card. I've also been successful at doing this for over two decades. Many times the value simply isn't there with the side so I'll pass. But if the total is off from what I calculate it should be, or the line movement is giving us value, I'll pounce on it. All my releases come with clear, detailed reasoning, often in multiple areas. Getting my free NBA Over/Under picks allows you to match your selections with mine while wagering alongside me. Or, you can simply digest my reasoning providing additional insight into the many layers that go into sports handicapping.
Free NBA Over/Under Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free NBA Over/Under Picks Pros:
- Tips and betting info from a documented successful pro bettor
- No cost
- Insight into who's moving the odds and why
Free NBA Over/Under Picks Cons:
- Too much too fast: Bet at a pace you're comfortable with
- Don't tease NBA totals
- Who is making the website selections might be hidden or unclear
Premium Picks Pros:
- Top picks will have multiple angles and key information attached to them
- Insiders can accrue unique information that isn't widely visible
- Premium Picks should be graded with a consistent amount to wager each time
Premium Picks Cons:
- Website past results aren't available to examine
- Minimal analysis means minimal work put into them
- Hounded by phone calls from tout services claiming to have a 'Game of the Year' every day
How To Win With Free NBA Over/Under Picks
The NBA season is a nine-month grind for players and bettors. Games are taking place every night, which means new information is popping up around the clock that can influence a team's performance and betting odds. You have to stay up to date to be on your handicapping game. If a total moves 4 points you need to know why. Is a star player injured? Has a coach announced he's resting two starters? Or have some big-money players all jumped on a soft opening number? Finding out the reasons helps pare down the best choices on the betting card. And obtaining free NBA picks assists you in narrowing down the top picks.
Free NBA Over/Under Picks Betting Strategy
NBA Game Tempo
The pace of the action on the court helps to identify where the total should be compared to where it actually is. This stems from the head coach. Some coaches prefer to attack on offense. They build their teams around adept ball handlers and demand that they attack the defense. Other coaches lack quality guards and to limit turnovers they prefer a slower tempo, often milking the shot clock. Still, other coaches simply value winning through defense and don't mind scoring 88 points per game as long as they hold the opponent to 87 or fewer. You can make an assessment of how many points a team is going to get based on its scoring average in relation to what kind of defensive team they're playing. Then, compare you're estimated total to the actual odds.
Stats to Guage High Scoring Games
There are several daily stats to examine that comport to Over/Unders. NBA Team Possessions per Game gives an excellent picture of what teams push the tempo and those that slow things down. The more possessions a team has, the more shots they'll be taking, and hence more points scored. NBA Assists to Turnovers provides insight into the quality of guard play. All guards can push the ball up the court if they choose, but some have a higher turnover percentage. More turnovers is detrimental to offensive performance, which is why you hear NBA coaches preach constantly, "Take care of the ball." Finally, there are three shooting stats that should be examined together: Points per Game, Field Goal Shooting, and 3-Point Shooting. Teams that take a lot of 3-Point shots often have a below-average overall field goal percentage as they're taking fewer high-percentage shots closer to the basket. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're a poor shooting team. It's essential to look at Points Per Game, the bottom line when it comes to offensive efficiency and Over/Unders.
Defensive Stats
Oddsmakers build their totals in part around the stat 'Points per Game allowed'. However, that doesn't always indicate whether a team is strong defensively. Some teams can be mediocre defensively but don't allow many points because they play at a slow pace. Field Goal Shooting Percentage Allowed and 3-Point Defense are better indicators of team defense. Teams can play at an uptempo pace and score a lot of points but still be outstanding in Field Goal Shooting Defense. When these teams face off against one another, the oddsmakers will likely have high totals to respect their offensive capabilities and uptempo pace, but it can provide a great wagering opportunity UNDER as great team defense has the edge in curbing offensive output.
Free NBA Over/Under Picks Subscription
To improve your handicapping acumen, by all means, dig deep into the stats and information each morning. It only improves your game to receive my free NBA Over/Under Picks daily on a subscription service. You can compare my releases to yours while picking up game information and betting insight that you weren't aware of. Beating the books on a consistent basis is a step-by-step process. Get armed with information alongside a documented professional who's been doing it successfully for over two decades.
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