For over six months there's action on the baseball diamond taking place almost every day from coast to coast. That means oddsmakers are busy calculating numbers for the MLB public betting which bettors then analyze to try to identify winning plays. Most fans are casual bettors when it comes to MLB baseball picks, throwing a few bucks on their favorite team or trying to hit a 3-team parlay for a shot (a long shot, really) to try and triple their money. But for a far smaller group, the serious bettors, they're in it for the long haul to turn a profit. It's comparable to the stock market or day trading only studying sports teams instead of corporations.
Why Use Tonight's Free Baseball Picks
Finding profitable edges with stocks isn't about tossing a few bucks down and hoping it grows. It's about studying the market carefully and gauging the expected performance of individual companies. The same formula applies to successful sports betting. Daily information is available on pitching MLB matchups, injuries, trends, stats, home/road breakdowns, and team reports. Oddsmakers utilize many of those things but not all of them. There are numerous details and changes that can be found that give certain teams advantages - edges against the final score and versus the odds. Getting information into your hands and head, such as publications like tonight's free baseball picks, is a step in the winning direction.
Betting Value in Tonight's Free MLB Picks
Oddsmakers make numbers based largely on stats and situations. If one of the worst pitchers in the league is on the mound, that team will likely be some kind of underdog while the total might be higher than normal, such as a 9 instead of an 8. But there are plenty of games where the odds are adjusted too much along with factors that are underrepresented. A pitcher with a strong ERA will be getting respect from oddsmakers. But if he's on a pitch count or normally goes around 5 innings, then the odds are probably overvalued. That would be especially true if his team had below-average middle relievers or they're coming off of an extra inning game where their best bullpen arms were used. That means the starter is only going roughly half of the game with the relievers accounting for around 4 innings. Baseball wagering value is about weighing essential information and gauging whether the line is about right or has been over or under-compensated.
Wunderdog Tonight's Free Baseball Picks
I've been assessing daily baseball picks, information and odds successfully for over two decades. I have an extensive database of stats along with an experienced eye that evaluates line movement and line value. As a general rule, MLB betting odds are based on the starting pitchers, and starters are overvalued. Many games will feature lead changes and are decided in the late innings. In addition, I pay careful attention to line movement overnight and during the day. This provides insight into where the sharp money is moving and what oddsmaking mistakes they see. Getting on board with my free baseball selections on a daily basis will help you develop a keener eye to improve your handicapping game.
Tonight's Free Baseball Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free MLB Picks Pros:
- Streamlines essential betting information quickly
- Zero cost, zero money lost
- Daily updates on all the changes around the league
Free MLB Picks Cons:
- Early releases can miss injuries and weather conditions that might affect final scores
- Overreliance on betting trends
- Experts that don't list past plays for you to judge aren't experts
Premium MLB Picks Pros:
- Insight into who's moving the line and why
- Top picks should have reasoning that is multifactorial
- An inside take at what the oddsmakers are thinking on the other side of the window
Premium MLB Picks Cons:
- Average handicappers can harm your bankroll before you realize
- Improper money management, such as "doubling up"
- Too much information and betting angles can confuse novice bettors
How To Win With Tonight's Free Baseball Picks
Be selective and disciplined. Not every game on the card has wagering value. And sometimes the value is in things other than the favorite or underdog, such as totals, props, run-lines, and team totals. Have clear supportive reasons for making a pick on a game. And wagering discipline is essential. This is all about making bets that are consistent and within the limits of your bankroll, such as 3%, 4%, or 5%. Deciding to bet three or four times as much as you normally do simply because you like the game a lot more is not proper wagering money management. Some of those games you love will turn out wrong so one loss can equate to losing four or five games in a row. And absorbing as much information on a daily basis as you can starts you off on the winning path.
Tonight's Free Baseball Picks Betting Strategy
In the old days, baseball managers would try and ride their best starters for 8-9 innings. Relievers were really mop-up guys or ones that simply weren't good enough to start. The game is very different now with general managers stockpiling reliable middle relievers, lefty specialists, and shutdown ninth-inning closers. So for bettors, starting pitchers are a small factor in the handicapping puzzle. Bullpen depth and quality are essential to look it. If the starters are going five innings and the relief staff four, that's almost half of the game in the hands of the relievers. With teams playing almost every night, it's important to look at how many relief pitchers were used the previous day and for how many innings. If their two best relievers with ERAs of 2.00 each threw 24 pitches last night, chances are the manager will be resting them today. If the rest of the relief staff has ERAs around 4.50 and 5.00, then that team could have a lot of trouble in the middle to late innings.
A rivalry series during the regular season is three or four games in a row, often between teams fighting to move up in the division. Players can be fired up to face a rival, while managers often set up the pitching staff to have their best arms available. But after that emotional stretch, an MLB team can be in a let-down spot. The Giants and Dodgers have a division rivalry that stretches back to their New York days. In one recent campaign, the Giants went 5-1 during a six-game homestand, including a three-game sweep of the Dodgers winning all three as underdogs. San Francisco then went on a seven-game road trip and went 3-4. That included a 4-3 loss at Pittsburgh as a -190 favorite. After playing at Dodger Stadium in the next meeting, the Giants headed to Arizona and lost all three games as chalk of -110, -200, and -115. In fact, they dropped all seven games on that road trip. Road trips can be taxing on a team while they're on a trip as well as when they come home. The Dodgers ended a nine-game trek after San Francisco, and then came home without any days off and went 2-2 versus Arizona, including losses as favorites of -305 and -330.
Team makeup can change during a season, for better or worse. General managers can bring up kids from Triple AAA to try and fix holes in a lineup or jumpstart an offense. Serious handicappers need to keep tabs on these subtle changes to see if the team begins to play better, worse, or the same. Managerial changes, too, can alter a team's chemistry and outlook. After a 22-29 start, the Philadelphia Phillies fired their manager, then won nine in a row with the new guy in charge. They went on a 15-2 run and ended up in the World Series. That same season, the Blue Jays fired their manager after a 1-9 run, then proceeded to go 13-3. Trades can help shore up weak areas. Starting pitchers being traded get the headlines, but subtle changes can make a big difference, too, such as adding a sound defensive shortstop or outfielder. A team can go from giving up a lot of runs to suddenly being very stout defensively while playing a string of low-scoring games, a boon for totals' bettors.
Tonight's Free Baseball Picks Subscription
Analyzing baseball stats, matchups, MLB line changes, and betting odds is my specialty. It's about knowing the numbers while putting the work in. There are many ways to win at baseball betting. Augmenting your own handicapping effort with a daily dose of tonight's free baseball picks via a subscription service gets you doubly armed for winning wagering action. Following and watching baseball is fun. But being a prophet for profit is even more enjoyable!