Some new handicapping dynamics come into play when the October baseball postseason rolls around. Teams that make the playoffs are likely to have better and deeper pitching staffs. And they get even better as managers will shorten the rotation going with their best arms to start as well as in middle relief. Games and MLB computer matchups can be tighter and closer making MLB run-line plays more favorable to the underdog than the favorite. In addition, the weather can become more of a factor. October night games can be cooler in northern cities. Cold weather can be tougher on hitters. The better pitching and colder weather are an edge for total bettors looking at the UNDER in MLB picks.
Why Use Free Baseball Playoff Picks
Utilizing the same handicapping basics of the regular season is still the right place to start, such as stats and matchups. But keep in mind the games mean more and managers will take different approaches to give their teams chances to win. Starting pitchers can be used on three days of rest or even in relief. Managers might ask players to try and steal more to squeeze out an extra run or put pressure on the opposing defense. The playoffs are a different animal, so beating the odds and the MLB betting public requires thinking about subtle changes before the first playoff pitch is thrown.
Betting Value in Free MLB Playoff Picks
Teams that have the fewest weaknesses make the playoffs so there are fewer huge favorites. Fans and oddsmakers generally are expecting closer games. Wagering value can be found when a team with several handicapping edges over an opponent is undervalued. Conversely, teams that have under-the-radar edges, such as defense and very strong relief pitching, can be undervalued and worth a pick, especially in the role of MLB underdog. During one of the Houston Astros World Series winning teams, they were an underdog three times in the postseason - and won all three by scores of 5-0, 6-5, and 5-0. All three were on the road showcasing how home field is less of an edge in the playoffs. And two of those three went UNDER the total, showcasing how pitching and cooler weather can be postseason factors. In fact, the Astros went 9-3-1 UNDER the total that October.
Wunderdog Free Baseball Playoff Picks
Many baseball fans look to back the winner, the loser, or their favorite team in October. But there are many other ways to win during the playoffs with MLB odds that are overlooked by most, such as totals, props, and run lines. Situational handicapping is less important as there are more days of rest for teams, plus the games mean so much that managers are going to go with their best as often as possible. My picks are jam-packed with information, MLB betting angles, with carefully explained reasons why this is one to put money on. I have 20+ years of baseball playoff insight that you can have access to. Winning is not about luck but the "3 E's": Expertise, Eyes, and Effort.
Free Baseball Playoff Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free MLB Playoff Picks Pros:
- Zero money lost means more dough for your wagering bankroll
- Consider all the betting options such as totals, props, and moneylines
- MLB playoff handicapping shifts from regular-season approaches
Free MLB Playoff Picks Cons:
- Betting more on fewer games
- No explanations provided on each selection
- Forcing bets on all the playoff games
Premium MLB Playoff Picks Pros:
- Professional bettors are able to zero in on the most relevant betting angles
- Top picks the pros are backing with their money
- A mixture of totals, sides, and props as the best value isn't just going to be on favorites and sides
Premium MLB Playoff Picks Cons:
- Too much stress and too little fun
- Just because an MLB playoff showdown is on TV doesn't mean you have to bet it
- There shouldn't be additional cost for premium picks than during the regular season
How To Win With Free Baseball Playoff Picks
Winning during the baseball playoffs requires discipline, effort, and shifting your focus to certain handicapping aspects that are different from the regular season. And line movement is less significant. Because there are fewer games, casual bettors will jump in with so few betting options on the card. Professional bettors prefer baseball underdogs, so if a playoff favorite jumps from -125 to -145, there's a good chance the public is on it. Acquiring different opinions from documented, respected pros will assist you in gathering the essential information needed to find those top wagering spots. And make sure you look at betting options beyond the favorite or underdog. Oddsmakers are forced to put up multiple numbers with only one or two playoff baseball games on the docket. The more the numbers, the better the chances that some of those odds are off.
Free Baseball Playoff Betting Strategy
Overvalued Home Field
Home field is often less important in baseball than in any other sport. Manager Early Weaver used to say, "You're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher." A pair of terrific starting arms may not win but they're likely to keep a team in a game for 6-7 innings regardless of the venue. In one recent campaign, the Cleveland Guardians won the AL Central with the same record at home as on the road (46-35). That same season, the Astros had the third-best home record in all of baseball (55-26) but were also 51-30 on the road. Oddsmakers are going to back a home-field edge into any playoff odds but it's less significant in October. Postseason teams generally have more strengths than weaknesses and can lean on decent all-around pitching depth. That Cleveland team split the first two games at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs, including a 4-2 win as a +125 dog, then split Games 3 and 4 at home. In addition, the MLB playoff schedule is spread out more with teams getting more days of rest each week than in the regular season. All of these things make home-field less of an October advantage than many think.
MLB Playoff Totals
Casual fans are too focused on home runs. Teams that run up enormous home run totals during the regular season can excite fans during the playoffs to look at games going OVER the total in a potential Home Run Derby explosion. But remember, a lot of those regular season home runs were against lousy pitching staffs or opposing managers throwing their worst arms to mop up while riding out a 13-1 loss. That's far less likely in October. Managers are going to shorten their pitching staff to get their best starters and relievers the most work. And with more days off, including some teams getting a few days off in a row, if they wrap up a series early, there is more rest for their top relievers. That makes October baseball tougher on hitters. That Cleveland team I just mentioned went 3-1-1 UNDER the total in the playoff series versus the Yankees. The Mariners got swept by the Astros with two of the three games sailing UNDER, including a 1-0 finale, while Tampa Bay lost two Wild Card games to Cleveland, 2-1 and 1-0 - the latter in 15 innings! When it comes to October baseball total betting, think about UNDERs more than OVERs.
Baseball Run-Line means a favorite has to win by more than one run. For instance, a favorite of -180 might be -120 on the Run-Line. The Run-Line would cash if the team won by more than a run, such as 5-3 or 7-1. Teams that rely on the long ball can be favorites in the playoffs as fans are dazzled by powerhouse offensive stats. However, those teams can struggle to score in October against pitching-rich teams. Teams that can score in multiple ways, such as stealing bases of manufacturing runs, have better flexibility when postseason games are close. Run-Line Underdogs offer better wagering value. An underdog of +130 might by -125 on the Run-Line. That would mean in order to win the bet, the underdog would have to win the game or lose by one run. That gives bettors two reasonable ways to win, especially with postseason teams that have the quality pitching depth to keep all the games close.
Free Baseball Playoff Picks Subscription
My baseball playoff picks are derived from careful analysis of the stats and matchups. I also incorporate the subtle changes that October baseball brings that are different from the regular season. In addition, plenty of proposition wagers crop up that many times have far more betting value than the side or total. All my selections come packed with carefully thought-out reasons why along with an essential but often overlooked winning wagering strategy: proper money management investment techniques. Sign up for my free MLB playoff picks on a subscription service to get the inside take on the top October baseball picks that will help you to wager, watch, and win!