The first week of the College Football campaign is the most challenging for oddsmakers and handicappers. No one is certain how teams are going to perform. The most challenging of all is that some teams can play totally different from the previous season. Utah ran the table undefeated with Urban Meyer, then went 7-5 the next season without him or their Heisman-winning QB.
Northwestern had a powerhouse defense during a 9-5 campaign and a CFB bowl win over No. 17 Utah then flopped to 3-9 the next year. In the opener, they were a 6.5-point favorite at Stanford but lost 17-7. Assessing how the new season will begin is done using other factors, such as returning starters, coaching changes, and key skill position talent lost or returning.
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Why Use Week 1 College Football Picks
With so many question marks and unknowns, it's essential to read up on team strengths and weaknesses, follow line movement and follow the college football betting public percentages and approach the betting market with patience and discipline. We all hope to get off to a hot start, but it's essential to do more than hope. You get off to a good start by being prepared and practicing the right fundamentals of handicapping.
Acquiring week 1 college football picks gets you pointed in the right direction by bringing the information and opinions of a professional player into your circle. New bettors are going to make mistakes and learn from them. Established professionals went through that learning process years ago and have streamlined their analysis to focus in on the games with the best odds of covering.
Betting Value in Week 1 College Football Picks
Analyzing line movement is a great way to attack Week 1. Odds will move for a variety of reasons. Sometimes a quarterback is batting an injury or is out. Other times, if too much money is coming in one side, the oddsmakers have to shift the line to help balance the action.
The key is: where is that "too much money" coming from? It's not a big deal if a lot of small bets from the general public are flowing in. It is a big deal, however, if a few big bettors (Wise Guys or sharps) have plunked down large sums of cash. "Reverse Line Movement" is when the line moves in the opposite direction of where most of the bets placed on a game are.
This means the average Joe is on one side, but a handful of big bettors have gone the other way. If you're going to follow the money, do you go with what your co-worker thinks, or follow the opinion of a Wise Guy bettor? There's usually more line value attached to the opinions of Mr. Deep Pockets, especially in Week 1.
Wunderdog Week 1 College Football Picks
I spend weeks getting ready for the NCAA college football campaign to begin, reading local newspapers, examining head coaching and assistant changes, sizing up returning starters, and tracking line movement. Finding winners is about weighing all the pregame information, then comparing it with the oddsmaker sides and totals.
The weekly college football picks I release are games I'm wagering on and come with in-depth analysis on why. It's smart to do your own groundwork to form opinions on the games and betting lines while also having the opinion of documented professional alongside.
Free Week 1 College Football Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free Week 1 College Football Picks Pros:
- No cost to you for free information, advice, and picks
- You're soaking up the proper mechanics of sports handicapping
- Gathering different perspectives is essential as Week 1 odds factor the previous year, but this is a brand new season
Free Week 1 College Football Picks Cons:
- Past won/lost records are not available on all websites
- Picks released too early can be affected by line movement
- Week 1 is the most challenging week to handicap with different assessments and stats not yet available
Premium Week 1 College Football Picks Pros:
- The betting pro has done all the work for you
- Week 1 picks should come with what bankroll percentage to wager on for your long-term success
- Unlike the rest of the season, Week 1 odds have been posted for weeks, providing pro bettors with more insight into where the early big money has been moving
Premium Week 1 College Football Picks Cons:
- Winning expectations can be too high for novice bettors. Patience and discipline are essential
- Too much information on too many plays can be confusing for newcomers
- If a professional service is releasing mostly favorites be skeptical, as Week 1 underdogs offer strong wagering value
How To Win With Week 1 College Football Picks
Having action on games is one thing, but if you want to expand your bankroll over the course of a season it's essential to follow the right steps. Winning consistently is my goal and that means deciphering the matchups and evaluating the numbers the oddsmakers have posted.
There will be winning weeks, some bad ones, and break-even weeks, so don't blow out your bankroll just because it's the start of a new campaign. There's a way to consistently beat the books at their own game. Being prepared and informed with the assistance of an established and documented professional bettor will help you end the season in the black.
Free Week 1 College Football Betting Strategy
Line Movement + UNDERs
Line movement is particularly important in the first week of the season. With so much uncertainty about how teams are going to play, it's an extra play to be able to identify the games the Wise Guys are on. Those big players often possess information that's not widely available.
In addition, while the general prefers high-scoring games and wagering OVER the total, the established pros look for first-week UNDERs. Offenses take longer to get in sync and generally defenses have the early season advantage.
One that Northwestern/Stanford opener Week 1 opener I mentioned earlier, the Over/Under opened at 50 points but was bet down to 48 total points. And the money move was an easy winner in a 17-7 final.
Experienced Quarterbacks
A team with more returning starters can have an advantage in Week 1, especially those who have a good junior or senior QB coming back. The quarterback is the most important position on the field, the only player who touches the ball on every offensive play. The signal-caller is called "The Field General" for good reasons.
A quarterback has to eye the defense before the football is snapped, change the play if necessary, and make the right reads and an accurate throw on passing downs. Be careful of an NCAA college football team that is favored in Week 1 but has a brand new quarterback. No one knows if that QB is ready for real action against a defense, not even the head coach.
Live Dogs
In the first game of the season, the oddsmakers have to rely on stats based on how a team performed last year. But many times last season's stats mean nothing. That can mean overvalued teams and undervalued underdogs.
One year, No. 10 North Carolina lost to unranked Virginia Tech, 17-10, 5-point favorite Illinois of the Big 10 lost at home to Texas San Antonio, 37-30, favored Vanderbilt lost to East Tennessee State, 23-3, No. 20 Washington lost as a 22- point favorite to Montana, 13-7, while 22-point underdog UC Davis knocked off Tulsa, 19-17.
All that happened in Week 1! Football fans were shocked - and so were the oddsmakers - as no one knows exactly how a team is going to perform, so don't be afraid of underdogs, especially in Week 1.
Free Week 1 College Football Picks Subscription
I know how to find the important early season information and match them to the softest betting numbers. It's a numbers game, but it's not about luck. It's about digging deep and assessing the appropriate wagering value.
Why try to do it all yourself when you can have a documented, winning expert on your side? I've been successful at this for decades and signing up for my free College Football Picks Subscription gives you instant access to the best wagering insight at no cost.
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