Portland at Dallas

Dallas (22-16) has been the story of the WNBA the last two days. A 92-70 blowout of Seattle on Sunday tied the franchise record for wins in a season, with Paige Bueckers dropping 32 points and matching a league record by hitting all six of her three-point attempts. A win tonight clinches the Wings' first playoff berth since 2023, and a franchise-record season paired with a shot at ending a three-year postseason drought is precisely the combination that can push a number further than the two teams on the floor actually justify. Portland has lost two straight, falling by three at Toronto and by five at home to Washington, and the 15-22 record doesn't help the case either. But look at how those losses actually went: three points, five points, nothing resembling the kind of collapse that should require this large a number. The Fire's average scoring margin on the season is just -4.4 points per game, and that stretch includes road wins at Phoenix and Seattle in the last two weeks. Getting a healthy multiple of that average as a cushion tonight, against a team that also has to shoulder the pressure of clinching for the first time in three years, is exactly the number I want on a big spot like this one. Dallas earned everything it got Sunday, and I'm not fading Paige Bueckers lightly, but a favorite carrying this much motivation and this much magnitude is the setup where I want the underdog and the points. Take the Fire.