Phoenix at Minnesota

Phoenix left Las Vegas this weekend after absorbing the third-largest blowout in WNBA history, a 106-58 defeat that dropped the Mercury to 8-16 and extended their losing streak to three. That kind of margin tends to get corrected the next time out, and Nate Tibbetts made clear afterward that his group can’t take the floor like that again. Minnesota sits at 17-6, tied for the league’s best record, coming off a 90-85 win over New York and playing behind the WNBA’s top defense. The Lynx have already handled Phoenix twice this season, including a 34-point win back on June 1, and this line leans on that history repeating a third time. I think that’s asking too much. Minnesota has built this entire 17-6 season without Napheesa Collier, who has yet to play in 2026 as she works back from offseason surgery, so her absence tonight is nothing new for a team that’s been rolling regardless. The number is the issue. Phoenix doesn’t need to be good here, just competitive enough to stay inside a double-digit cushion after that humiliation in Las Vegas, and desperate teams coming off historic blowouts tend to show up with something to prove. My mathematical model makes this line too steep. We’re on the Mercury with the points tonight.