Los Angeles at Minnesota

Los Angeles didn't fold at Atlanta on Monday, erasing a double-digit deficit to grab the lead in the fourth quarter before the Dream pulled away late in a 101-92 finish. That fight matters this afternoon against a Minnesota team that has authored the WNBA's best record, 18-6, without its best player playing a single game: Napheesa Collier is still working back from surgery on both ankles and has yet to suit up this season. The Lynx have gotten here on depth and shot-making, not nightly blowouts, and outside of a 34-point rout of a reeling Phoenix club, most of Minnesota's wins have come by far tighter margins than this number implies. Kelsey Plum's four-week absence with a leg injury guts the Sparks offense on paper, but it also strips away the pressure to protect a lead or force a result. I like the number here: Los Angeles can play loose and make Minnesota execute for 40 minutes to cover a spread built for a team that hasn't needed to run up scores like this on a nightly basis. We're getting a shorthanded underdog with plenty of margin for error at this number. Take the Sparks with the points this afternoon.