Golden State at New York

Golden State's stingy defense won me a bet three days ago, as I got points at Minnesota and cashed the UNDER the same night, when that unit held one of the league's best offenses to 66 points. Tonight, the best defensive rating in the WNBA walks into Barclays Center on zero rest, its third game in four nights after wins over Minnesota and Connecticut. New York has had five days to get its legs back since its last game, and the Liberty bring the third-best offensive rating in the league into a matchup against a team now asking its best asset to perform on fumes. That is the total: New York does not need much of a crack in Golden State's defense to push this number, and a depleted, back-to-back defense is exactly that crack. On the spread, the fatigue cuts the other way for backing New York outright, but not enough to make Golden State a bad number. This is still a 27-11 team sitting second in the West, and the same informed money I have tracked all season is stacking up on Golden State here too, even as the public ticket count sits closer to even. A team this talented, on a short number, has plenty of margin even on tired legs. Take Golden State with the points and take the OVER tonight.