Golden State at Connecticut

Golden State turned in one of its best defensive performances of the season Monday, holding Minnesota, one of the league's most explosive offenses, to a season-low 66 points, and I had the Valkyries with the points and the UNDER that night, both of which cashed comfortably in an 80-66 win. That version of Golden State, fresh off a day of rest, is not walking into Connecticut tonight in the same shape as the Sun. This is the road half of a back-to-back for the Valkyries, but more importantly, it is the second night in a row for Connecticut, who beat Chicago 87-81 at home Tuesday and turn right back around on zero days of rest against a team that just held one of the league's top offenses to its worst output of the year. Fatigue shows up as a discipline problem before it shows up as a fitness problem: closeouts get late, rotations get lazy, and a Connecticut defense that already sits just middle of the pack league-wide has even less margin to survive tired legs against a Golden State attack that ranks in the league's upper half in offensive efficiency and likes to push pace. Connecticut is the league's lowest-scoring team this season, but it hung 87 on Chicago less than 24 hours before tip-off, proof this number is more mobile than the season average suggests once the game turns into a track meet. Both teams are healthy, so this comes down to legs, not injuries, and one side is gassed while the other is fresh enough to push the pace from the opening minute. Take the OVER as my WNBA Game of the Month.