Connecticut at Indiana

Connecticut is 11-29 and not sneaking up on anybody, but the version of the Sun that showed up three days ago against Chicago is the one that matters tonight: an 87-81 win that didn't just cover the plus-six-and-a-half I had them at; it ended a two-game slide outright. Indiana is the far better team at 27-14 and returns home off a hot shooting night on the road, 18 for 33 from three in a win at Chicago, the kind of outlier performance that's easy to overreact to heading into the next game. The Fever are also walking back into this one after three straight true road games, exactly the spot where a heavy favorite starts settling for jumpers instead of playing with the force that built the record. None of that makes Connecticut the better team tonight. It makes a number this size, and a price this long, worth attaching a small piece of the ticket to. The Sun need to win outright only about once every fourteen tries at this price to make the flyer worth it, and a team that did exactly that against a quality opponent three days ago is live enough to take that shot. Take Connecticut on the spread and take a flyer on the moneyline tonight.