With limited fan interest, books expect to get far less sports betting action on sports like NASCAR, tennis, golf, and the WNBA. Limited WNBA betting activity results in smaller amounts of money wagered (aka the handle) and less liability for bookmakers. They closely monitor the handles for football and men's basketball, making regular adjustments to the numbers. However, that is not the case with the WNBA, resulting in weak numbers that are not adequately corrected by the betting market. It creates an opportunity for sharp savvy bettors to exploit the market, which I've been doing since 2008.
Who's in Charge Here Anyway?
Before I delve into WNBA betting strategy, it's essential to understand how casinos and sportsbooks generate their revenue. Casinos survive based on their "hold percentage". How much of the total amount wagered are they taking? A 30-year study calculated the hold percentages on table games, including baccarat (12.85%), roulette (18.85%), craps (14.32%), and blackjack (12.77%). Those are hefty cuts, which is why casinos go to great lengths to attract customers to their doors with comp buffets, free drink tickets, and live entertainment. The hold percentages for bookmakers vary significantly, and in some cases, they are worse. The average NFL betting hold is approximately 4.76%, while sportsbooks typically expect to retain around 4% of all money wagered on games as profit. Parlays have higher hold percentages, ranging from 15% to 25%. The average bettor loves parlays, as do sportsbooks. Unsophisticated bettors often lose a significant amount on parlays, resulting in a larger payday for the bookmakers. Futures bets are even more one-sided, with hold percentages ranging from 20% to 25%.
Winning isn't Everything, it's the Only Thing!
The best way to win money betting on sports is to carefully study matchups, situations, the posted odds, and narrow it down to a few choice selections. It also helps to make a beeline toward sports that oddsmakers are paying less attention to. Globally, soccer, cricket, and basketball are the most popular sports to wager on. In the United States, the NFL accounts for approximately 70-75% of the annual sportsbook betting handle, with college football, the NBA, and college basketball following closely behind. The WNBA is low on the totem pole of betting interest. When sports books pay less attention, it increases the chances for serious gamblers to put the odds in their favor.
Information Outage
Not only is there less money wagered on the WNBA, but there is also far less information available on the league. News flashes on teams and injured players in the NBA and football happen around the clock. If a star forward or quarterback has a nagging injury, it's all over the news and social media. Will he or won't he play? Is he 100% or at 75%? Fans take notice, as do oddsmakers, making adjustments to the line based on the potential availability of a key player. With far less fan interest in the WNBA, the news isn't saturated with updates. Betting odds aren't saturated with line shifts, either. All of that is a big plus for serious gamblers. They can gain an edge by studying carefully and handicapping correctly to identify real wagering advantages.
WNBA Matchup Analysis
One of the basic handicapping options is to absorb the strengths and weaknesses of teams. By understanding teams and players, a WNBA handicapper gains a good sense of how teams will perform based on statistics, scoring averages, field goal shooting percentages, and defensive metrics. Mismatches will take shape: Will a dominant frontcourt rebounder have a massive game against a team with poor defensive and rebounding numbers? Is a team that has multiple strong three-point scoring options likely to have a significant edge over an opponent that is poor at defending the three-point area? Examining head-to-head records can also provide predictive insight into what is likely to happen and whether the betting odds are accurate or not.
WNBA Situational Handicapping
Not all games are created equal. Handicapping edges are also culled from examining situations that can influence team performance. How tired or rested are teams? A WNBA team working on four days of rest can be facing an opponent working on one or no rest. What happened in the previous game? If a team was fired up to face a division rival or has just won a revenge game, there's a chance they'll be less focused or emotionally worn out in the next contest. A "letdown spot" is a team that comes off a big game, while a "look-ahead situation" is one where the next game has more importance than this one. How do teams fare when playing on back-to-back nights? Checking the box score of the previous game can also provide important information. If a team possessed a big lead, allowing the coach to rest his starters, that's a positive situation for the next game.
The WNBA Prop Shop
Prop betting has great interest for the Super Bowl and is largely ignored the rest of the year, but it shouldn't be if you want to win money. Player props such as Points Scored OVER/UNDER 24, or Rebounds OVER/UNDER 8.5 are available on standout WNBA players nightly. You wager OVER or UNDER the prop number the oddsmakers set. The key in handicapping WNBA player props is matchups. If a star player is facing off against a great defensive team or one with a defensive stopper, they may not have as big an offensive game as their season average. Check previous matchups against the same opponent to see how that player performed. A terrific rebounder matched up against a team with an undersized frontcourt is probably going to have a big night on the glass. The oddsmakers aren't dummies. They often make accurate numbers, but not always. It's the job of the consistently winning handicapper to examine the numbers and identify where the weakest prop odds lie.
Home/Road Dynamics
Handicapping is about digging deep to identify reasons that can explain and predict a team's performance. Home and road breakdowns reveal plenty of patterns for bettors to take advantage of. Individual players and teams can shoot well at home but struggle on the road. Team defense can be intense at home but shaky on the road. It may be less of a factor for some experienced teams that are strong both straight up and against the spread, both at home and on the road. When the Las Vegas Aces won the WNBA title in 2023, they were very good on the road (15-5) but almost unbeatable at home (19-1). In the Aces' final road trip, they went 2-2 SU/0-4 ATS, including a loss at Washington (78-62) as a double-digit favorite. Just two weeks earlier, Las Vegas hosted Washington and won a blowout, 113-89, covering as 17.5-point chalk. As 4.5-point favorites at home in the first two games of the WNBA Finals, Las Vegas won by 17 and 28 points. Then, in Game 3 on the road, the Aces lost (87-73) as a favorite. That same season, the Phoenix Mercury were 8-12 at home but 1-19 on the road. Oddsmakers factor in where the games are played when setting their WNBA odds. It's the job of winning handicappers to assess whether the adjustment was too much or too little.
Patience and Discipline: Keys to Profit
Many sports bettors wager with their heart, letting emotion get in the way. Either that, or they are action junkies, craving the excitement of having some action on a game they're watching. That's why the vast majority of bettors lose. Consistently winning sports bettors bet with their heads, utilizing patience and discipline. Winners study carefully and are selective with their WNBA bets, only wagering when they see a clear edge. With less fan interest in sports like the WNBA, oddsmakers also pay less attention. The goal of handicapping is to identify weak betting numbers and capitalize on them. Winners study matchup edges and situations that can influence team performance, such as home and road dynamics. There will be weak WNBA sides posted, along with totals and props, and the extra handicapping effort pays off at the betting window.
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