Why the impatient gambler loses

What's the difference between winning and losing? Not much.

Here are some probabilities, presented so you can get a feel of what winning feels like. The best way to describe it? It feels like losing! Yes, you read that right it feels like losing, and that is why most gamblers crumble to the psyche, that initializes their demise! Let me explain:

Let's say you're having success gambling. You are a long-term 55% handicapper, yet somehow it doesn't feel like it is supposed to feel.

Here is your answer:

Let's say you average between 3-5 plays a day, let's say 4 plays a day. If you are a 55% gambler making 4 plays a day this is your statistical expectation:

Wins Losses Probability
4 0 9.15%
3 1 29.95%
2 2 36.75%
1 3 20.05%
0 4 4.10%

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that the chance you'll have a winning day, after the juice/vig is considered is less than 50/50! To have a winning day in this scenario, you need to win 3 or 4 out of 4. The chance of that is happening 39.1% (29.95% + 9.15%). So, over 60% of the time you will be losing money!

Now you can see where the problem lies. A gambler goes 2-2 on his well capped plays, but after a 2-2, or 1-3, or the rare 0-4 decides he needs to make money for the day, and plays a not so well advantaged capped out game. Unconsciously he has just reduced his chances of being a 55% capper, even though he is!

It goes beyond money management, it takes a substantial amount of discipline, to accept losing 60.9% of the time, in order to win. WHY? Because it feels like losing! Until this is understood, the sportsbettor, even the one that can hit a winning percentage, as is ahead of most of his peers, will show a loss at years' end.

Begin to manage your sports wagering like a business, that doesn't need a good day, or a good week, or even a good month, but needs to show a profit at years' end. If you can cap out 55%+ this is the only way it can be done!

Remember:

  • Even at 60% winners you lose 52.48% of all days you bet!
  • Counterintuitive as it may sound, winning is losing...But don't fight the losing days. There will be many of them.

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