Toronto at Calgary

Calgary scored eight goals and allowed 27 while losing its first five games. Since then, it is 4-1, and the Flames have won all three of their home games in that run after losing the first three there. Toronto is 7-4-2 and has scored 6, 5, and 7 in its last three games, so the Maple Leafs arrive with the better record and the hotter offense. Calgary has allowed 2, 1, and 1 over its last three games, all wins, and each of those finished UNDER. Devin Cooley made 36 saves against Minnesota, and Calgary killed all four Wild power plays in that game. The Flames also score with the man advantage. They are 6-for-12 on the power play over their past four games and rank third in the league at 32 percent, after finishing 31st last season. That gives them a way to score two or three goals without a track meet. Toronto's totals in its last three games were 8, 9, and 9. Calgary's defense and penalty kill are the reason this game can go the other way, and Toronto has to find goals against a team that has allowed one in each of its last two games. I expect Calgary to be in a game where two or three goals can win it, and at plus money that matters, with the total sitting right where that game lives. Calgary on the moneyline and the UNDER are my plays tonight.