Seattle at Calgary

Seattle beat Calgary 6-1 on October 1 and 6-1 again on October 4, seven goals each night. The Flames have allowed 3.75 goals a game, 31st in the league and second-worst. Seattle has scored 48 goals through 13 games, seventh in the NHL, and allowed 46, 28th and fifth-worst. The Kraken give up 31 shots a game, 30th, and I expect Calgary to get its volume. The Flames average 28.8 shots, ninth in the league. They score 2.33 goals a game, a bottom-four mark. I put the most weight on Seattle's late-game defense, which has blown a multi-goal third-period lead in three of its last four games, including a 4-3 shootout win over Detroit on October 20 and Wednesday's 5-4 win over Toronto, which produced seven and nine goals. Seattle also lost 8-3 at Florida on October 17. The price is a shade better than even money, and our bankroll can use that here. Play the OVER tonight with a Calgary power play converting at 29% against a Seattle penalty kill working below 71%.