Ottawa at Tampa Bay

Ottawa has amassed a 6-3 road mark thanks to great defense (allowing 2.1 goals per game on the road). But, they are showing serious signs of cracking. They have allowed 4.7 goals per game over their last six games, on way to an 0-6 mark. Tampa Bay is 9-4 at home thanks to scoring 3.8 goals per game and allowing 2.2 per game. They are also on a bad run of late but we see Ottawa having very little chance at a road blowout win here - especially the way they are playing. Home teams having lost four of their last five games win the game outright 57% of the time. We aren't sure that Tampa will win here but we are quite sure they won't get blown out so we'll back them +1.5 goals on the puckline.