Anaheim at Calgary

Anaheim beat Edmonton 5-4 on Thursday for its third straight win, and the Ducks have played in goal-heavy games all week. Over their last six, they are scoring 5.3 goals a game and allowing 4.7. Across their last ten, they have scored 3.9 and allowed 4.3. My handicap starts there, because Anaheim gives up goals as readily as it scores them. Calgary's side looks different. The Flames lost 2-1 in overtime to Seattle on Wednesday, and over their last five they are scoring 2.2 goals a game and allowing 2.8. Calgary is 7-8-1. Anaheim's defense is the weak spot here, and Calgary has already shown it can exploit it: the Flames scored four goals in their 4-2 win over the Ducks earlier this season. The Ducks are 7-1-1 when they score at least three goals, so they supply goals on their own. The OVER has to land a little under three games in five for our bankroll to break even, and I expect the Ducks to get it there. With Anaheim's defense giving up goals at that rate, the OVER is the bet tonight.