Sports betting trends are all over nowadays, from free databases to sites to online books willing to accept your wagers on events. If you look closely, you can find useful trends supporting either side of a game. The key is knowing how to sift through the clutter to find the gems. It’s like panning for gold, and the nuggets are what lead to profit. 

Let’s examine the various types of NHL hockey trends and how they can assist us in making NHL winning picks. 

How to Use NHL Standings for Betting Trends 

Ask a thousand bettors what their first step is when preparing to analyze a matchup, and at least a quarter of them will say, “Checking the standings or stat sheets.” 

The standings include home and away records, scoring differentials, and recent streaks. “Print sheets” provide more detailed information, such as goaltender stats, period scoring, and Over/Under data. 

One issue with the statistics from either of these sources is that the data samples are often too small (Example: Team B is 7-3 in its last 10 games) or too broad and general, like a team’s win-loss record from the first 65 games of the season. However, this does not make the information useless. 

Here are a few trends you can research based on the daily NHL standings. 

1. Streaks 

The standings include a section showing a team’s record over its last ten games. While “6-4” doesn’t mean much for a division leader, it can often suggest value on a road team with a losing record. 

Action: Check the team’s more recent games. If they are 5-1 in their past six, that’s valuable. In the past five years, the five best teams in this situation are the Avalanche, Hurricanes, Panthers, Leafs, and Oilers. 

2. Rest Disparity: A Hidden Edge

What’s the team’s “rest” status heading into tonight’s game? You might want to steer clear of teams playing in a back-to-back or for the third time in four nights.

Conversely, if a recently hot road team with a losing record on the season is facing an opponent that played last night, that’s a big-time checkmark. 

Boston (7-0), Buffalo (14-6), Detroit (16-7), Colorado (7-1), and St. Louis (21-6) are the five most profitable teams in this spot since 2021. Their combined record is 65-20 (76.5%), resulting in a return of +51.8 units (+41.8% ROI) on an average moneyline price of -105. 

Key Stat: In the 2024 season, NHL road dogs with a rest advantage finished 19-20 but they were getting +139 on the moneyline. The net result for keen bettors was a +15.4% return. 

The bottom line is that rested road teams with momentum can be a green light against weary, overpriced home favorites. 

3. Scene of the Crime 

Home teams usually get a boost on the moneyline from bookmakers due to the league’s .544 home win percentage over the last 20 years. Our goal is to analyze recent form and see if the increase is justified. 

Matchups Matter: If a home team with a .640 home win percentage — which is elite — is laying more than -200 tonight against a non-divisional foe, but has a divisional revenge match on deck vs. a rival that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, I’m immediately starting to look for value on the road squad. 

Standings trends can be noisy, but when combined with recent form, they can reveal hidden value. In many cases, you need to connect the dots, linking the standings to the trends, to see the bigger picture. 

Beyond home and road splits, the betting line can offer key insights. 

NHL Moneyline Mechanics 

Another place where a ton of bettors like to start their NHL handicapping process is by reviewing the current NHL odds. If you track power ratings, you can quickly compare value against the book’s number, and from a trend betting perspective, here are a few angles to consider. 

1. Close Quarters 

Tightly-lined games where the moneyline favorite is laying -130 or less account for 55% of all NHL games over the past 20 years. Favorites had a profitable year in 2023, going 166-116 (.589) for a +8.7% return, but road dogs — especially in conference games — have been more lucrative for me. 

The top conference road dogs in tightly-lined games since 2018 are the Senators (16-9), Canucks (26-15), Stars (23-18), and Oilers (24-20). Each team delivered a bankroll return of +15% or more, and I was getting +110 odds or better in these NHL matchups. 

2. Fading the Chalk 

My all-time bankroll gain on NHL underdog Max Plays (picks rated at 2-plus units) is +$143,310. I’ve had 15 of 20 (75%) winning seasons with this group, and for me to classify one of my picks as a Max Play, everything must align: win-loss records, rest, recent form, and the matchup type. Still, I’m a data junkie, so I rely on league-wide statistical evidence before I make a move.

Here’s the foundation of an NHL betting system that has paid off for underdog bettors handsomely since 2013: 

- Play ON conference home dogs off a home game with regular rest. 

The win rate is only 53%, but with an average moneyline of +132, these NHL teams have produced a +18.2% return on bankroll. Of the past 12 seasons, seven have made a profit. 

Pro Betting Tip: To align my data with current league trends, I focus much of my research on the post-lockout seasons, starting from 2013. In most cases, conference games have proven to be more consistent, as this condition helps ensure a focused effort from our team. 

Quick Checklist for Moneyline Trend Analysis 

✅ Is the sample size large enough to be meaningful? 

✅ Are these conference or divisional opponents with a history? 

✅ What’s the average price range for this situation? Are you getting value? 

Over/Under NHL Betting Trends 

When betting NHL totals, you don’t need to worry as much about the inflated juice, but you want to arm yourself with multiple betting outlets to ensure the best odds for your target line. 

Overall scoring trends in the NHL have fluctuated throughout the years as the league altered rules to try to boost offense. To this day, I still find myself watching live games that motivate me to research a potential Over/Under trend. 

Like moneylines, totals can reveal trends, especially when paired with rest, travel, motivation, and scoring metrics. Once you understand the conditions behind a total, you can spot value where others only see juice. 

Here’s an example from March 2025, when Colorado was visiting Toronto. Both teams had high-scoring offenses, with the Avs (3.34 GPG) ranking fifth in the league and the Leafs (3.22 GPG) tenth at the time. Neither team had outstanding goaltending, yet the final score was 2-1 for the Leafs — an easy win for UNDER bettors. 

Colorado was coming off a tough overtime victory at home and had another away game against Ottawa on deck. Based on each team’s win percentage and a few more factors, I found that the UNDER was 67% effective in this situation, yielding a +23.7% ROI. 

One point that supported the data was when the total was 5.5 or higher, reinforcing the benefit of having multiple outlets. 

Emotional Swings: When the Numbers Lie 

In my How to Win at Sports Betting series, I discuss emotion and its role in betting. In sports, we also need to remember that trends don’t always come from stats. Sometimes, they’re driven by human emotion. Tragedy, motivation, or team unity can spark unexpected betting value, especially in the short term. 

In 2024, this phenomenon was on full display when beloved Columbus Blue Jackets forward Johnny Gaudreau and his brother were killed when a drunk driver struck them as they were riding their bikes on the night before Johnny’s sister’s wedding. 

In the wake of that off-season tragedy that claimed their hero and his brother, the Blue Jackets dug in for home games with renewed determination, at times appearing nearly unbeatable. 

The net result was a 26-15 (.634) record, returning +33% ROI. 

Los Angeles ranked as the second-best home team with a +17.7% ROI. 

In front of their home fans, Columbus outscored opponents 4.02-3.02 with a higher scoring average in all three periods. In contrast, their away numbers show they were outscored 3.51-2.63 while going 14-27 (.341), making it one of the most remarkable contrasts of the modern era. 

Keep in mind that this team hadn’t posted a winning record since 2018. They finished 2023 with a .402 win percentage (27-43-12) and had the worst record in the Eastern Conference. 

Those who recognized this trend early managed to back the Jackets at plus-money in over half of their games. The world, and the bookmakers, believed it couldn’t last, but the fans showed up and stayed late after every game to salute their players, who lingered on the ice to honor their fallen star.

It was a trend that went beyond the numbers and was highly profitable. That said, while trends driven by emotional catalysts can be rewarding, they’re often short-lived and impossible to reproduce. 

Bringing it Together: Trends with Intent 

NHL betting trends aren’t gospel — they’re tools. Whether you’re using trends as a launchpad for further analysis or a final push for a pick, the key lies in context. Team-specific trends tell one story, but comparing them to league-wide data provides more profound meaning. Coaching trends, rest situations like the dreaded 3-in-4, and revenge motives or emotion-driven efforts can all influence outcomes, but only if the data supports the narrative. Ultimately, spotting the difference between noise and value is what separates winning picks from losers. Remember, trends are only as valuable as the insight behind them, so dig deeper, and always bet with purpose.