Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Football Team

Seattle is well coached under Pete Carroll, excelling on Monday night marquee games winning 11 of their last 14. QB Russell Wilson (10 TDs, 3 INTs) is back from a finger injury while the defense is ranked seventh in points allowed (20.9 per game). The Seahawks are also 36-16-4 ATS after a loss and the Hawks are coming into this one off losses to two of the NFC elites, Green Bay and Arizona, despite giving up an average of 20 points. Washington is far from an NFC elite, dealing with a lot of injuries, especially on the offensive line. QB Taylor Heinicke (15 TDs, 9 INTs) has been inconsistent and Washington's offense is #19 in yards and points and #24 in turnover margin (minus-4). The defense, meanwhile, is #24 in yards allowed, third-worst against the pass, fourth-worst in points surrendered (26.7), and dead last on third down (52.9%). Washington is 28-54 ATS at home against losing teams, including 10-25 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning percentage between 25-40%. Play Seattle to win. 

The Washington Football Team is making a run for the NFC East title, winning its last four games, but it still is a clear underdog against the Seahawks, who have won three of their last four following a 40-3 annihilation of the hapless New York Jets on Sunday. Russell Wilson threw four more touchdown passes for a career-high 36 and finished 21 of 27 for 206 yards in less than three quarters of work. Washington was helped by defensive touchdowns by rookies Chase Young and Kamren Curl while beating San Francisco 23-15, but now Washington has to be concerned about QB Alex Smith, who missed the second half with soreness in his surgically repaired right leg. Dwayne Haskins would replace him, but he already was benched earlier in the season. Seattle is #6 in the league in yards gained while averaging 30.2 points, and Washington is only #30 with 314.5 yards per game and scoring just 22.1 points. Take the Seahawks on the moneyline.

The Seahawks remain the best team in the NFL, and at home I’d have a tough time taking an OVER with this defense, but this game is on the road where the defense takes a marked step back. In their lone road game this season, San Diego torched the defense for 30 points. The Redskins don’t have that kind of offense, but they will score here. Let’s not forget they put up 41 and 34 already in two games this season. The Redskins defense, however, has allowed 37 and 45 in their last two games, and Russell Wilson and company will have no problem getting into the end zone as a result. For some reason, this Seahawks offense continues to be underrated. They won a Super Bowl last season and have averaged 28 points per game this year. Take this one to go OVER the total.

A pair of the hottest teams in the NFL will meet in the opening round of the NFC Playoffs - both featuring rookie QBs that have turned around their respective franchises. There are plenty of similarities in the offenses of these teams. They each have a mobile rookie quarterback that makes them highly difficult to defend, while at the same time they each have a running back that is having a monster season. While the similarities compare about equally on offense, they end when you take a look at the defenses. Seattle has allowed just 15.3 points per game (best in the NFL) while the Redskins have allowed 24.3 ppg. Therein lies the difference in this game. The Seahawks simply have proven to be able to get the needed stops, while the Skins have disappointed as often as they have succeeded on defense. There is also one key factor that says that the Seahawks’ defense has the capability to shut down RG3. The Seahawks went to Carolina this year and held a similar style QB in Cam Newton to 12-for-29 and 121 yards, while he ran the ball seven times for 42 yards. The Panthers tallied just 12 points. The defense certainly showed that they could handle a similar offense with a similar QB. The other factor is whether RG3 is ready to be RG3 again after his knee injury. He has not shown the same desire to run and was noticeably not the same on his return. I think that these factors will weigh heavily in Seattle's favor. Beyond the defensive differences, overall these teams aren't as equal as they may appear. Sure, there is a one-win difference in the standings. But that's misleading. Based on pythagorean analyis, Seattle is closer to a 12 or 13 win team (12.4 pyth wins). Washington is closer to a 9-win team. Seattle is 9-1 ATS this season vs. winning teams and 4-1 vs. playoff teams. They beat Green Bay, New England and San Francisco. They also showed they can win on the road, going to Chicago and winning outright as an underdog. Meanwhile, Washington is just 2-2 this season vs. playoff teams. There's some concern of course considering this game is on the road for Seattle. But, I think they are just a much better team and they should win this game.