San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams

It has been a long time since the St. Louis Rams have been a .500 or better team this late in the season. In fact, it's been nine years, but with a win over San Francisco, they can achieve that result. Todd Gurley has been a man amongst boys in the Rams backfield, as he has been tearing off big chunks of yardage. The problem the Rams face is where else can they find some offense? How about this ugly stat. Over the last three Rams games, Gurley's rushing yards have been about half the Rams team total yardage (45.3%). San Francisco is going to load up the box, and make those yards tough to come by, and as it is St. Louis is moving the chains on third down just 28.8% of the time. The Niners offense was stymied by a motivated Seattle defense last week, but Colin Kaepernick passed the ball well in his previous two games, with the Niners generating their top two offensive games in terms of points on the season. This line is just simply too high. The Rams have been favored by more than a touchdown just one time since 2005, and the last 15 times they have been a greater than a touchdown favorite, they have gone 3-12 ATS, losing six of them outright! The offense just isn't there for a big number, so take the points on San Francisco.

After a couple lackluster performances against Arizona and Chicago that left the Niners at 1-2 to start the year, looking like a team in decline. But they weren't that bad and they have answered the bell. After falling behind Philadelphia 21-0 in game four, the San Francisco defense did not allow the high powered Eagles offense to score a single point, as all 21 points allowed were non-offensive TD's. It seemed to be a rallying point for this team as they have now won two straight, and Frank Gore looks like he is 25 again. Carlos Hyde appeared to be slowly taking over, but Gore would have none of that as he has scampered for a youthful looking 365 on 4.7 yards a carry. St. Louis was supposed to be a big defensive team, but three of their four opponents have scored 34 points. The absence of Chris Long has hurt the Rams pass rush, and without any pressure, they have been getting exposed. The Rams aren't stopping the run either, so another heavy dose of Frank Gore and the Niners should be in good position to win rather easily here. On the season, the Rams have allowed 29.7 ponits per game. That spells trouble for St. Louis as the Niners are 8-1 ATS since the arrival of Jim Harbaugh vs. bad defensive teams (those allowing 24+ points per game). The Niners have been a road beast on Monday Night Football as they are a perfect 12-0 ATS since 1996 on the road if they are less than a 10 point dog and it is not a throw away week 17 game. As a road favorite of 7 points or less under Harbaugh, San Francisco is 10-2 ATS. Rather than lay -3 or -3.5 for the full game, let's take them at -2.5 on the 1st-half line. Make the play on San Francisco in this first-half in this one.

San Francisco has a winning record both home and away, and just thumped Washington on the road 27-6. It was a team on which the 49ers could move the football. The Niners face another one here in the Rams, a club ranked #13 against the run and #22 against the pass. The 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, and are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. This is a long road trip for the Rams, a team coming in with a backup QB. Despite winning two in a row, St. Louis has lost three of five games. That includes losses to a pair of powerhouse, physical, defensive teams in Carolina and Seattle while scoring 15 and 9 points and they face another powerhouse defense here in San Francisco, one getting healthier on both sides of ball. San Fran is now #4 defensively against the pass and #12 against the run. The 49ers are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games on grass and match-up great against the visitors, who have a losing road record and rank #15 in rushing and 23rd in passing. When they met earlier this season, San Francisco rolled 35-11 at St. Louis with a 219-18 edge in rushing yards! The Niners are now 31-16 ATS in the Jim Harbaugh era as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). Take the 49ers.