2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 07, 2004

This pick was released to clients on July 10, 2012 at 7:29PM ET.

07

Washington at Detroit

Sunday 11/07 01:00 PM Eastern

5 units on Washington +3.5 (-110) (risk 5 to return 9.55)  RESULT: win

3 units on Washington +150 (moneyline) (risk 3 to return 7.5)  RESULT: win

The Skins have been a major dissapointment this season. After all of the hype surrounding legendary NFC East coaches (Parcells, Gibbs), Tom Coughlin is having the biggest positive impact in the division. Washington is one of the teams I believe isn't as bad as their record indicates. They've been in all of their games this season and their average margin of loss has been just 3.5 points per game. Alot of this has to do with their defense, ranked #1 in the league. They scored the go-ahead touchdown last week late in the fourth quarter on a 43-yard Clinton Portis burst but the play was called back for a (some would say phantom) illegal motion penalty. Without that penalty, they most likely beat the Packers last week. The Lions might be the opposite. They have posted impressive wins against Houston and the Giants but they are just 1-2 at home this season and they've been blown out twice. Look beneath the surprising 4-3 record and we see a team with the 29th ranked defense and worst offense in the league. We are getting over a field goal against the worst offense in the league matching up against the best defense in the league - hmmmmm. Smells like value to me. I expect Detroit to struggle mightly and score few points. Meanwhile, I like Washington's offense to get on track against Detroit's pourous D. I like Washington to win this one outright in fairly easy fashion. In this league, medium-sized underdogs that have been held under 17 PPG for 3+ games tend to bounce back nicely against the spread. Bet 275 to win 250 on Washington +3.5 and another 150 to win 225 on the Skins to win the game.

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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