Washington vs. Miami

The disappointing Miami season got a reprieve last week in a surprising 30-13 rout of Buffalo. They're a favorite in this week's international tilt, but have flopped in that role, losing both times they've been favored, to the Patriots (33-27) and Carolina (27-24). Washington has a nice matchup advantage, seventh in the NFL in rushing with 135.2 yards per game behind RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (470 yards, 4.5 ypc). Plus, mobile QB Marcus Mariota (6 TDs, 4 INTs) is a veteran starter, stepping in for injured Jayden Daniels. The Miami defense is 26th against the run, allowing 139.7 yards per game, 23rd on third down, and 24th in points surrendered. Miami will likely rely on its run game to control the clock, and the Dolphins are 3-1 UNDER in their past four games. Washington needs a big shift from its defensive mindset after allowing 38-plus points in back-to-back losses. They have the front seven to get after Tua, and if they can disrupt the pocket and force a turnover, I expect them to cover and possibly win outright. Play Washington ATS, and bet the Commanders-Dolphins UNDER.