2018 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 09, 2018
This pick was released to clients on September 10, 2021 at 2:02PM ET.
Tennessee at Miami
Sunday 09/09 01:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Miami +1.5 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 2.86) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 45 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: loss
Tennessee opens the season on the road with a new coach in Mike Vrabel. They have a new playbook with first-year offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur and quarterback Marcus Mariota plays his first real game since a season-ending injury last year. It's going to take some time for this offense to get in gear. And Mariota struggled through his worst pro season (13 TDs, 15 INTs) in 2017. The Titans are on a 9-21 spread run on the road, as well as 15-39-4 ATS against the AFC. The Tennessee defense looks better, upgrading the linebacker depth in the draft and signing CB Malcolm Butler from the Patriots. Defenses are often ahead of the offenses this time of the season and note that the Titans are 8-3 UNDER the total in Week 1. Miami got QB Ryan Tannehill some good weapons in free-agent additions Albert Wilson (Kansas City) and WR Danny Amendola (New England). The defense began a youth movement last season as one of only three teams to have played at least eight rookies on 'D.' They got better as the season went along, including a late season win at Denver (35-9) and an upset of the Patriots (27-20). The defensive line also got better after adding Robert Quinn in a trade from the Rams. The Dolphins are 8-2 UNDER the total in Week 1 and the underdog is 5-1 ATS when these teams clash. This shapes up as a Week 1 defensive duel, so back home field in a game with little scoring. Play Miami and the UNDER.
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