2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 22, 2013
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Sunday 12/22 01:00 PM Eastern
1 unit on Tennessee -4 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: loss
1.5 units on Game Total OVER 44 -105 (risk 1.5 to return 1.5) RESULT: loss
Jacksonville saw their three game winning streak come to an end last week in Buffalo, leaving the Jaguars at 4-10 on the season. They got their first win of the season in Tennessee, and I think the Titans feel the need to redeem that embarrassing loss. At 5-9, Tennessee has had one of those "what if" seasons. They have been snake bit all season, losing a pair of games in overtime, and four others by a single possession. If they could have won just half of them, they would be entering this game at 8-6, so this is a borderline playoffs team that has experienced some unusually tough luck. They have also played nine games against teams that are currently .500 or better. One thing that has surely changed is their games have become up-tempo since their bye, whether it was a conscious decision or not, it is highly noticeable. Their first seven games saw 291 total points scored. Since their bye, the last seven have seen that number grow to 390 - a 14.3 points per game increase. So, I think the total here is well within reach. It also doesn't reflect the strides that the Jags have made on offense. The Jaguars scored 10.8 points per game in their first eight, and 22.5 in their last six. The Titans will be the hungrier team here with revenge, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road, and 4-1 ATS in the five they have played vs. a losing team. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 3-11 ATS at home the past two seasons and 3-11 ATS as an underdog over that time. The Titans are also 10-1 to the OVER after rushing for less than 90 yards. Go with Tennessee and the OVER.