2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 14, 2008

14

Tennessee at Houston

Sunday 12/14 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Houston +3 (+100) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

This is an extremely interesting line. We have the team with the NFL's best record facing a team with a losing record. The better team won the first matchup of the season 31-12.  Yet the 12-1 team is just a field-goal favorite to the losing team? Think back as far as you can go. Do you ever remember a scenario like that, this late in the season? I sure don't. That says one of two things to me. Either the books are begging for everyone to pile on Tennessee because they really think Houston will cover. Or the Titans, in the eyes of the books, just aren't as good as their 12-1 record would indicate. There is likely truth to both. As mentioned, Tennessee beat Houston 31-12 early in the season. It looks like a runaway, but the reality is the Texans were down 24-12 knocking on the door late, and Schaub threw a pick-6 that went 99 yards the other way for a 31-12 finish. So what finished as a 19 point difference could have easily been a 5 point margin. The Texans also decided to go for two 4th and 1's and came up empty, eschewing the FG's. So what if they put the FG's on the board, and punched the TD in instead of a pick-6 the other way? Texans 25 - Titans 24. Monday morning QB's don't win any money from Sunday, but they sure help you find the truth behind the stats. At 6-7, the Texans have had a few slip away like this, but are now playing as good as anyone. Steve Slayton ran for 118 yards in that first game, and he has become part of the passing attack for the Texans now (37 catches) as well. The Texans sold out to the run in that game and held Tennessee to less than 4 yards per attempt, and Collins still could only put up pedestrian numbers. The yardage and first downs were just about even, despite Houston's negative turnover margin in the game. And that game was in Tennessee. Houston has established a strong homefield advantage going 12-4 in their last 16 games, despite never having had a winning season, and they are 6-1 ATS last seven as a home dog, winning five of those straight up! The Titans have all but wrapped up homefield advantage, and they clinched the division last week, so what incentive do they have here? Especially after already owning a "big" win vs. Houston this season? We have motivation our side, against an overrated team. I'll take Houston as a very live dog here!

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Wins Losses Units
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