2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 04, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

04

Tampa Bay at Washington

Sunday 10/04 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Tampa Bay +9.5 (-107) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

These teams are both desperate for a win as the Bucs enter 0-3 and the Skins at 1-2. They know that their division hopes will vanish with a loss here. And yes, Tampa Bay is one of a few teams laying claim to worst in the NFL thus far. But the Skins laying 9 points? What? The Redskins just lost to a team that had lost 19 straight games! Prior to that, they barely beat St. Louis as a 10 point favorite. That St. Louis win came with some luck as the Rams (who have lost 13 straight by the way) fumbled the ball inside the Washington 10 yard line late in the game. So, the Skins could easily be 0-3, and they haven't surpassed 17 points scored in a game yet this season. So an ugly loss to an 0-19 team, and a come-from-behind two-point win over an 0-13 team warrants this line? Change will be blowing in the wind in Washington as Bucs’ first-year head coach Raheem Morris is going with QB Josh Johnson in this one. While a QB making his first start may scare some folks, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez have shown that the old stigma assigned to inexperienced QBs is just that - old. While Johnson is not of the caliber of those QBs, his start does not automatically make the Bucs a no-play here. The Redskins have not been able to get it done in this spot as they are 1-7 ATS against teams with a .333 winning percentage or less and 0-5 ATS as a favorite of six or more. As mentioned, the Washington offense has been no where to be found. They have produced just 40 points on the season or 13 per game. The Redskins are on a 3-14-3 ATS run against teams with a losing record. This line indicates that the Redskins are a much, much better team. But, when are they going to show it? The Bucs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following three straight losses and I'm going with them here.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Buccaneers 7 3 0 3 13
Washington 0 0 16 0 16

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

Premium Picks Available Now

Get FREE NFL PICKS
with detailed analysis