2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 16, 2012

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

16

Tampa Bay at New York

Sunday 09/16 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Tampa Bay PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: PUSH

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers certainly looked like a renewed team last week under the guidance of first-year head coach Greg Schiano. Tampa Bay played defense last week much the same as they did in the years when this team was contending for Super Bowls, allowing a franchise low 10 yards on the ground to the Carolina Panthers. In his days at Rutgers, Schiano was a preacher of ball security and discipline. That message seems to have gotten through as the Bucs played flawlessly last week. They did not turn the ball over a single time in their opener and committed just four penalties. It led me to a very revealing stat. Teams that are underdogs of +7 or more, and don't turn the ball over are 192-59-4 ATS in the NFL since 1990. If these big dogs turn the ball over one time they are 303-154-15 ATS, and even with two turnovers they are 261-133-11 ATS. So if Schiano's influence truly has changed the culture here and the Bucs hold on to the ball on Sunday, the Giants are in for a battle. New York has problems with injuries in their secondary. They gave up two long TDs to Dallas in their opener, along with 307 yards and a 76% completion rate. And, with a 10-day layoff as a big favorite, could they be a bit flat? Those are all dangerous numbers for a big favorite. Despite seven out of ten bets coming in on the Giants here, this line has moved 2 full points the other direction. What does that tell us? The big (sharp) bets are coming in on Tampa Bay. Play on the Bucs.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Buccaneers 3 21 3 7 34
Giants 6 7 3 25 41

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