Tampa Bay at Houston

Tampa Bay held the Falcons to 69 yards rushing, including just 24 on 12 carries by Bijan Robinson, in its 23-30 win in Week 1. Baker Mayfield threw three TD passes, including a go-ahead 25-yarder with 59 seconds left, as a new offensive coordinator appeared to have no adverse effect on him after Liam Coen went off to Jacksonville. The Buccaneers were outgained 358-260, but the defense came up big when it mattered, and the game went UNDER. The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS in their past six games after allowing more than 250 yards passing, and they have covered four of five September games. Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in September after losing 14-9 to the Rams while managing just three field goals. The game stayed UNDER by 20.5 points. The Texans are 7-1-2 UNDER following a loss, 10-1-2 UNDER after an ATS loss. Houston's past four September games have gone UNDER. The Texans have lost four of their past six games outright. The Rams outgained Houston 296-265, and C.J. Stroud was 19 of 27 for 188 yards with an interception. The Texans are 1-9 ATS before playing Jacksonville the following week. Take the Buccaneers (take the +3 at negative odds vs. the +2.5 with plus odds) and bet the UNDER.