Tampa Bay at Denver

Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady knows how to pass and put up points in the thin Denver air. The offense is averaging 27 points, but the defense still has problems in the secondary, ranked #20 allowing 264.5 yards per contest, and #17 in points (25.5 pg). Both games this season have sailed OVER the total, part of a 14-4 run OVER for the Bucs. They are also 20-6 OVER the total on the road with that suspect defense. Denver just gave up 26 points to a team with an excellent passing attack and quarterback in a loss at Pittsburgh. The pass defense is #25 in the NFL surrendering 274 yards per game. The Broncos are 20-7 OVER the total at home after allowing 300-plus passing yards in the last game and NFL home teams off two or more spread covers in September games are 42-16 OVER the total. Play OVER the total.