Tampa Bay at Dallas

I had Dallas with the points at Houston on Sunday and cashed it when the Cowboys won 34-30. They have scored 20, 37, 31, and 34 this season, for a 30.5 average, tying San Francisco for second in the league. The defense allows 28.0 points a game, 28th and fifth-worst, with Cobie Durant out and two safeties on injured reserve. Each of those four Dallas games finished with more combined points than tonight's posted total. Tampa Bay is 0-4 with Baker Mayfield out, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his second start. Daniels threw two interceptions in his debut against Green Bay, and the Buccaneers have scored 16 and 14 in their last two games. They have also lost by six, four, seven, and three, and they ran for 137 yards against Cleveland and 141 against the Packers, 55 of them by Daniels. That ground game gives a rookie quarterback something to lean on against a Dallas offense that threw for 335 yards at Houston and ran for 75. Tampa Bay's secondary is without Antoine Winfield Jr. and Benjamin Morrison, so Dak Prescott keeps getting chances to throw, and every possession Daniels extends on the ground keeps the visitors in range. More of the money than the tickets is on the OVER. Back Tampa Bay with the points and take the OVER tonight.