2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 06, 2009
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Sunday 12/06 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Tampa Bay +4 (-110) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: loss
3 units on Game Total UNDER 40 -109 (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
Josh Freeman has turned the Bucs into a competitive team. Prior to his taking over under center, this team was getting blown out week after week. They lost their first six games by an average of 18 points per game. But, the Bucs beat the Packers with him at QB and have been competitive in all but one game since. So while this team still has a long way to go, they have come a long way. Are the Panthers with their backup QB making his first start in two years really that much better? They had a chance a week ago to keep their playoff hopes alive, but lost to the Jets, scoring six points. It was their fourth loss in the last six weeks and dropped them to 4-7 on the year. I can hardly see them bringing fire against a one-win team when their season effectively ended last week. The Panthers have not been a good home favorite as they are 14-23 ATS in that role. The fact is, Carolina is a bad team and I see nothing turning that around this week. This team is 15-25 ATS in the John Fox erea as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are also 8-18 ATS under Fox after back-to-back losses including 1-9 at home. I like Tampa to keep this close. I also like the UNDER here. Carolina averages 18 points per game while Tampa Bay gets just 16.5 per game. Neither one of these teams has a big-play offense as the Panthers have allowed over 450 yards on the ground over the last three weeks and like to run it themselves. The last 15 times the Panthers have been home vs. a divisional opponent in a Sunday game, the UNDER is 15-0! I'll go with Tampa Bay and the UNDER in this one.
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