Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Tampa Bay has no balance on offense at #30 in rushing yards. This makes things easier for defensive coordinators to game plan and the Buccaneers are #22 in points scored. QB Jameis Winston (shoulder) has missed the last two games and will sit out again. The Bucs are 8-3-1 UNDER the total on natural grass. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will start, but he has been decent with seven TDs to three picks, working with a talented trio of WRs in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries. Rookie TE O.J. Howard also chipped in with 52 yards last week in a 30-20 win at Miami. They face an Atlanta team with a new offensive coordinator and they haven't been close to the team we saw offensively a year ago, down by 10 points per game in scoring. The Falcons are in a difficult situational spot, taking a long road trip to Seattle last week. It was a big win as a dog, 34-31, but teams with winning percentages of 51-60% off a win as an underdog are 37-71 ATS when playing losing teams that next game. And even though the Falcons scored 34 points last week it was not a good offensive performance, with just 190 yards passing, 89 rushing at 3.0 yards per carry. Atlanta's defense is fine, #10 in the NFL in yards allowed, and #13 in points. The Falcons are 18-7-1 UNDER the total on natural grass. The Buccaneers are 12-5 ATS at Atlanta, so back the big dog in a defensive duel between these division rivals. Play Tampa Bay and UNDER the total.