Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Tampa Bay has a strong offense under QB Tom Brady, but don't overlook this defense that is seventh in the NFL in yards allowed, No. 1 versus the run, and #11 in points allowed. RB Ronald Jones, the fourth-leading rusher in the NFL with 900 yards, was placed on the reserve this week. They've gone two straight games UNDER the total as well as five of nine. They face an Atlanta squad on an 8-2 run UNDER the total with the defense allowing 17.7 points over the last four contests. The Falcons are 8-2 UNDER versus pass defenses that are allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse, plus 81-54 UNDER against teams that average 24+ points per game. Take UNDER the total in this one.