Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay opened the season with a 23-20 win over the Falcons, and now the Buccaneers need to beat them again to stay atop the NFC South while Atlanta is playing the spoiler role, having lost seven of eight, including a 37-9 blowout by Seattle last week. The Buccaneers have lost five of seven, but most of those losses have come against the top teams in the league, until they inexplicably were defeated 24-20 by lowly New Orleans. That will get the Bucs motivated to bounce back, and Baker Mayfield may get his two top receivers back from injuries as Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are off the injured list. Kirk Cousins is 1-3 in four starts for Atlanta since taking over for Michael Penix Jr, who is out for the season. The OVER is 4-0-1 in the Falcons' past five games after allowing more than 350 yards their previous game, and they are 3-0-1 OVER after scoring fewer than 15 points. The Falcons have gone OVER five of six overall while allowing 26.5 points per game. Five of seven Atlanta road games against Tampa Bay have gone OVER, and 14 of the past 19 meetings overall have sailed OVER. Tampa Bay has gone OVER its past four December games. Take the Buccaneers on the moneyline, and bet this one to play OVER as my top play.