2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 08, 2005
This pick was released to clients on July 11, 2012 at 3:25PM ET.
St. Louis at Seattle
Saturday 01/08 04:30 PM Eastern
1 unit on Seattle -4 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: LOSS
While I can make an argument here for the Rams, I like the Hawks. For one, it is very hard to beat a team three times in a row in one season in this league. Coaches and players adjust and revenge is real. While neither of these teams has much of a future in these playoffs, the Seahawks are the better team. The Rams are dangerous on offense and Seattle has a pretty average defense. But let's take a closer look at something I've pointed out several times this season: St. Louis is a different team at home than on the road. While they won their home games by an average of nearly 4 points this year, their performances away from the Edward Jones Dome were another story. On the road the season, St. Louis scored 17 points per game while giving up over 29. While passing stats were about the same at home and away, the running game was very different. The Rams abandonded the run on the road, rushing the ball just 20 times per game for an anemic 75 yards. This compares to a respectable 27 carries for 127 yards per game at home. Martz loves to throw and I guess he feels less pressure to show balance in road games. I personally believe that when under pressure, he's more likely to revert to what he feels comfortable with (throwing the rock). He's coming off a big win in which Bulger threw for 450 yards. He feels vindicated and justified for going back to the pass. So, I expect Martz to throw alot here which bodes well for Seattle. In the eight games this season that Martz ran the ball 25 times or less, the Rams went 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS. I like the matchup with Shaun Alexander vs. the Rams defense, too. On the Road, St. Louis gives up over 150 yards per game on the ground. You don't get much worse than that. I think there's a good chance that Alexander will come into this game with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove, having missed the rushing title by one yard this season. Another motivated individual here is Mike Holmgren. If he loses this game, he's probably gone - plain and simple. Intangibles also favor Seattle. If Bulger goes down, the Rams are toast. Also, Mike Martz has the capability to lose any game based on his sometimes questionable playcalling. Seattle DE Grant Wistrom is expected to return after missing two games, which should shore up the Seattle defense a bit. The Rams are 6-18 ATS on the road this season (2-6 this year) and 31-53 ATS since 1992 on grass (2-6 this year). One star on Seattle.