2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 24, 2004

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

24

St. Louis at Miami

Sunday 10/24 01:00 PM Eastern

1 unit on Miami +6 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)  RESULT: win

1 unit on Miami +230 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 3.3)  RESULT: win

I know, I know. I keep going with Miami and they keep losing. But I admit I like them again this week. They are like some addicting drug to me. I know they are bad but they seem to represent very good value each week, this one included. They will win one of these weeks. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 6 or more consecutive losses are 33-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. St. Louis is in a letdown situation here as they are riding high and now have to try to "stay up" against the league's only winless team. When teams turn things around as dramatically as the Rams have, I always take a peek at turnovers. Why? Because I want to know how much of the turnaround is skill vs. luck. Well, low and behold, the Rams went from two takeaways in their first three games (1-2 SU) to eight in their last three games (3-0 SU). The Dolphins defense (3rd best overall) will have success against St. Louis. Miami owns the best pass defense in the league, allowing a stingy 127 yards per game through the air. That's a nice matchup against the Rams. With their speedy receivers slowed by the grass field in Miami, the Rams passing game could struggle in this one. I've got tons of situational trends pointing Miami's way including one that involves very poor teams that have failed to cover the spread in most of their recent games that is 37-8 ATS. Backing the Fish again this week. Bet 55 to win 50 on Miami at +6 and 50 to win 115 on the Dolphins to win outright.

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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