2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 06, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

06

St. Louis at Chicago

Sunday 12/06 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on St. Louis +10 (-125) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: win

3 units on Game Total UNDER 41.5 -115 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: win

It would be very difficult to expect the Bears to come back and play tough in this one. They gave everything they had last week vs. the Vikings, and it was good enough for a 7-7 tie midway through the second quarter. The Vikings took off from that point, essentially ending the Bears' season. At 4-7, Chicago will not be making the playoffs and if there was ever a deflating loss leading to a mail-it-in type of game, this is the spot vs. the lowly Rams. It has been over a month since the Bears even won a game and now they are a huge favorite? That says more about what the oddsmakers think of the Rams than the Bears. If you haven't noticed, the Bears are 1-6 in their last seven games with three losses by 20 points or more. In their last four games they have a worse record than the Rams. The fact is, St. Louis has improved (didn't lose a game by more than 10 points the last month), while Chicago has gotten worse (0-4 with 14 ppg scored over last month). I like St. Louis with the generous points here. I also like the UNDER. Both offenses have been anemic this year. St. Louis is averaging 11.8 points per game. Chicago has averaged 14.3 per game over the last month. Take out a 30-point performance vs. Cleveland and a 48-point performance vs. Detroit, and the Bears are averaging just 15.3 points per game on the year! The Rams have played to the UNDER at a 13-5 mark in their last 18 on grass. The Bears are 5-0 to the UNDER after allowing 150 rushing yards or more and 20-2 UNDER after scoring 14 or fewer points under Lovie Smith. The one bright spot for the Rams is RB Stephen Jackson, so the Rams will have the ball on the ground a lot here grinding the clock. The last seven meetings between these two have produced five UNDERs. This spread is inflated and the Bears deflated. With Jackson grinding out yards on the ground, I like the Rams and the UNDER in this one.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Rams 0 3 3 3 9
Bears 10 0 7 0 17

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