2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 21, 2004
This pick was released to clients on July 10, 2012 at 8:01PM ET.
St. Louis at Buffalo
Sunday 11/21 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Buffalo -1 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: WIN
Wow. The Rams beat up on the Seahawks last week. Pretty impressive. Yes, it was. But as I've written here several times, the 'Hawks are overrated. I give St. Louis credit for that win but they are not the best team in this week's matchup. Buffalo, after starting poorly, has become a respectable offensive team behind the legs of Willis McGahee. And, they have an awesome defense. Everyone and their mother was on the Seahawks last week and they saw St. Louis win in easy fashion. This, combined with Buffalo's crushing at the hands of the Patriots last week sets us up nicely for this pick today. That Buffalo loss was to the best team in the league. Don't read too much into it. To be getting points here at home is a nice blessing. St. Louis will be playing outside in November on grass. Not a good combination for them. Also, St. Louis has been known to underperform late in the season. In fact, over the past three seasons, the Rams are 1-7 ATS against teams with losing records. They are also 3-10 ATS as road favorites over the same time span. Winning teams coming off home upset wins over division opponents follow those games up with ATS losses about 70% of the time as the public overreacts to that big surprising win. The public is wrong on this one as Buffalo should be favored. Grab the favor and take the better team as a home dog. Bet 220 to win 200 on Buffalo.