2003 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 04, 2004
This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 5:25PM ET.
Seattle at Green Bay
Sunday 01/04 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Green Bay -7 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: LOSS
One of the worst road teams in the league travels east to face a team with one of the biggest playoff home-field advantages known to man. Yes, the Packers lost last year at home but that was the first time in 12 home playoff games and there was a very good reason – a guy with an S on his chest named Vick (and five Packer turnovers). Green Bay were pretenders last year and are a better team this year. That’s one reason Packer-backers are laying a full touchdown this weekend. The other main reason is that Green Bay, and Brett Farve in particular, is riding some big-time momentum. Since the loss of his father, the Packers have outscored their opponents 72-10. Over the past four games, the Pack is averaging 36 points per game. Green Bay won its division on a wild last-second touchdown by Arizona which knocked the Vikings from division leader to out of the playoffs. The Seahawks also backed into the playoffs thanks to a Cowboys loss to the Saints. The earlier matchup this season between these two teams in Lambeau was a runaway victory for Green Bay 35-13. This Packer team is not just about Brett Favre, though. In fact, for most of the year, he has played average or worse. The fact that he is back to his “old self” and peaking right now is a major bonus. This team also sports an amazing running back in Ahman Green. Green is similar to Jamal Lewis – powerful and extremely fast. The Packers, with Green, have the league’s third best running game. That is huge in the playoffs. Green Bay has several motivational factors going for them this year. Favre’s inspiration to play well for his father will continue. His team is also playing with extra effort for him. In addition, the Packers will be looking to atone for last year’s home playoff embarrassment. They want very much to reestablish Lambeau field as the most feared place to play in January. They are also still riding the emotional high of getting into the playoffs with Arizona’s last-second touchdown. Someone pointed out to me this week that Green Bay lost three games at home this season. So is their home-field mystique in jeopardy? Not so fast my friend. Let’s look at those three games. First off, in each of those games, Brett Favre as I mentioned, was playing average. He had severe issues with his broken thumb. His splint is now off for the first time since it was broken. Secondly, these three losses came against very good teams (at least at the time): Minnesota in week 1, Kansas City and Philadelphia. The Pack are HOT and won’t cool down this weekend. Look for the Packers to continue their hot streak, even on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.